Evidence for ET is mounting daily, but not proven

By SETH BORENSTEIN.....WASHINGTON — Lately, a handful of new discoveries make it seem more likely that we are not alone — that there is life somewhere else in universe.


In the past several days, scientists have reported there are three times as many stars as they previously thought. Another group of researchers discovered a microbe can live on arsenic, expanding our understanding of how life can thrive under the harshest environments. And earlier this year, astronomers for the first time said they'd found a potentially habitable planet.

"The evidence is just getting stronger and stronger," said Carl Pilcher, director of NASA's Astrobiology Institute, which studies the origins, evolution and possibilities of life in the universe. "I think anybody looking at this evidence is going to say, 'There's got to be life out there.'"

A caveat: Since much of this research is new, scientists are still debating how solid the conclusions are.

Another reason to not get too excited is that the search for life starts small — microscopically small — and then looks to evolution for more. The first signs of life elsewhere are more likely to be closer to slime mold than to ET. It can evolve from there.

Scientists have an equation that calculates the odds of civilized life on another planet. But much of it includes factors that are pure guesswork on less-than-astronomical factors, such as the likelihood of the evolution of intelligence and how long civilizations last. Stripped to its simplistic core — with the requirement for intelligence and civilization removed — the calculations hinge on two basic factors: How many places out there can support life? And how hard is it for life to take root?

Alien Life Living Among Us?
What last week's findings did was both increase the number of potential homes for life and broaden the definition of what life is. That means the probability for alien life is higher than ever before, agree 10 scientists interviewed by The Associated Press.

Seth Shostak, senior astronomer at the SETI Institute in California, ticks off the astronomical findings about planet abundance and Earthbound discoveries about life's hardiness. "All of these have gone in the direction of encouraging life out there and they didn't have to."

Scientists who looked for life were once dismissed as working on the fringes of science. Now, Shostak said, it's the other way around. He said that given the mounting evidence, to believe now that Earth is the only place harboring life is essentially like believing in miracles. "And astronomers tend not to believe in miracles."

Astronomers, however, do believe in proof. They don't have proof of life yet. There's no green alien or even a bacterium that scientists can point to and say it's alive and alien. Even that arsenic-munching microbe discovered in Mono Lake in California isn't truly alien. It was manipulated in the lab.

But, says NASA astrobiologist Chris McKay, who has worked on searches for life on Mars and extreme places on Earth, "There are real things we can point to and show that being optimistic about life elsewhere is not silly."

First, there's the basic question of where such life might exist. Until a few years ago, astronomers thought life was only likely to be found on or around planets circling stars like our sun. So that's where the search of life focused — on stars like ours.

That left out the universe's most common stars: red dwarfs, which are smaller than our sun and dimmer. Up to 90 percent of the stars in the universe are red dwarf stars. And astronomers assumed planets circling them would be devoid of life.

But three years ago, NASA got the top experts in the field together. They crunched numbers and realized that life could exist on planets orbiting red dwarfs. The planets would have to be closer to their star and wouldn't rotate as quickly as Earth. The scientists considered habitability and found conditions near these small stars wouldn't be similar to Earth but would still be acceptable for life.

That didn't just open up billions of new worlds, but many, many times that.

Last week, a Yale University astronomer said he estimates there are 300 sextillion stars — triple the previous number. Lisa Kaltenegger of Harvard University says scientists now believe that as many as half the stars in our galaxy have planets that are two to 10 times the size of Earth — "super Earths" which might sustain life.

Then the question is how many of those are in the so-called Goldilocks zone — not too hot, not too cold. The discovery of such a planet was announced in April, although some scientists are challenging that.

The other half of the equation is: How likely is life? Over the past decade and a half, scientists have found Earth life growing in acid, in Antarctica and other extreme environments. But nothing topped last week's news of a lake bacterium that scientists could train to thrive on arsenic instead of phosphorous. Six major elements have long been considered essential for life — carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus and sulfur. This changed that definition of life.

By making life more likely in extreme places, it increases the number of planets that are potential homes for life, said Kaltenegger, who also works at the Max Planck Institute in Germany.

Donald Brownlee, an astronomer at the University of Washington, is less optimistic because he believes what's likely to be out there is not going to be easy to find — or that meaningful. If it's out there, he said, it's likely microbes that can't be seen easily from great distances. Also, the different geologic and atmospheric forces on planets may keep life from evolving into something complex or intelligent, he said.

If life is going to be found, Mars is the most likely candidate. And any life is probably underground where there is water, astronomers say. Other possibilities include Jupiter's moon Europa and Saturn's moons Enceladus and Titan.

There's also a chance that a telescope could spot a planet with an atmosphere that suggests photosynthesis is occurring, Kaltenegger said. And then there's the possibility of finding alien life on Earth, perhaps in a meteorite, or something with an entirely different set of DNA.

And finally, advanced aliens could find us or we could hear their radio transmissions, McKay said. That's what the SETI Institute is about, listening for intelligent life.

That's where Shostak puts his money behind his optimism. At his public lectures, Shostak bets a cup of coffee for everyone in the audience that scientists will find proof of alien life by about 2026. The odds, he figures, have never been more in his favor.

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Online:

NASA Astrobiology Institute: http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/

SETI Institute: http://www.seti.org/

Brazil’s National Commitment to Energy — Bankrolled by China

Whiskey & Gunpowder
By Byron King
June 12, 2009
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.

Brazil is making a national commitment to develop energy resources located far offshore in the South Atlantic. Indeed, no nation has ever advanced such an ambitious plan for long-term comprehensive offshore development. And it’s being bankrolled by China.

Much of Brazil’s South Atlantic development will require drilling wells in waters up to two miles deep, through four-five miles of rock beneath the seabed. The prize at the end will be oil deposits with reserves estimated in the tens of billions of barrels. With access to this offshore bounty, Brazil expects to take its place among the first ranks of energy-producing nations in the world.

Brazil’s state-controlled national oil company (NOC), Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) plans to spend over $175 billion in the next five years just on offshore development. The immense investment involves buying and building dozens of new drill ships and seagoing platforms, along with many dozens more support and servicing vessels. Petrobras will lay thousands of miles of pipelines on the seafloor, connecting massive complexes of subsea equipment that will sit atop hundreds of oil wells.

To finance much of this development, Brazil has turned to China. With the active support of the Chinese government, many Chinese banks are lining up to extend loans to Brazil’s energy sector. Right now, there is an agreement for a Chinese consortium to lend Petrobras $10 billion. In exchange, Petrobras will eventually ship 200,000 barrels of oil per day to Chinese refineries. There are more such long-term finance supply deals in the works.

The Chinese government has established strategic guidelines for its national firms. That is, the Chinese government has set goals for Chinese firms to supply China’s long-term needs for energy and other natural resources. The Chinese are looking well ahead into the rest of this century, and even into the 22nd century. They want to ensure their future access to a diverse global supply chain, as well as win entrée into resource-rich regions of the world for Chinese industries and support firms.

Why are the Chinese receiving such a warm welcome in Brazil? According to Sergio Gabrielli, CEO of Petrobras, “The U.S. has a problem. There isn’t someone in the U.S. government that we can sit down with and have the kinds of discussions we’re having with the Chinese.”

In other words, there is a new geopolitics of oil at work. In the olden days, it would have been large international oil companies (IOCs) like Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP walking into a room to meet with the Brazilians. The IOCs were the only game in town. They controlled the financing and the technology for large developments.

But today, the biggest deals begin with a political understanding at the top, hammered out between the highest levels of the respective governments. This top-down political deal making cuts out the IOCs, except where they have technical expertise that can be hired on a contract basis.

In essence, we are witnessing the end of the post-World War II economic construct of the world’s financial system. That construct always had a Western bias. But the 2008 crash of the Western business and financial model has changed everything. It has left a barren worldwide financial landscape for large development projects. Most traditional Western financing is simply not available for large projects. And as French author Francois Rabelais (1494-1553) once noted, “Nature abhors a vacuum.”

Thus has the Western financial crisis handed well-capitalized, government-backed Chinese banks and industrial firms an unmatched competitive advantage. With the traditional credit markets dry, Chinese banks have transformed into key lenders for the resource developments that will fuel the next generation of humanity. Indeed, for now, the Chinese are the world’s ONLY lenders for large resource development projects. See Brazil, Exhibit 1.

China’s Rare Earths Monopoly — All But Insurmountable

China’s support for Brazilian energy development is not the only angle that the Chinese government is pursuing for its future gain. China’s large reserves of foreign exchange, as well as its national strategic focus, has enabled incomparable — even insurmountable — progress for the Middle Kingdom to corner the world supply of substances called rare earths. Here’s the production chart for the past half century. Obviously, something is going on here.

Now that we’ve seen this chart, the questions arise: What are rare earths? And why are they important?

Rare earths are the 15 elements within the lanthanide series of the periodic table, plus the elements yttrium and scandium. The best known are lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, praseodymium, gadolinium, europium and samarium.

Here’s why rare earths are important. They’re used in a wide range of industrial and electronic applications. For many years, large amounts of lanthanum and cerium have been used in petroleum refining, with the result of increasing yields from each barrel of oil by about 10% while extending the life of other expensive catalysts like platinum. And rare earths find their way into myriad other applications, from aerospace super-alloys to rechargeable cell phone batteries.

More recently, large volumes of rare earths (especially neodymium) have gone into magnets. In fact, rare earths are a key component in strong, permanent magnets. It’s not those cute little refrigerator magnets; your computer contains a number of tiny magnets in its hard drive. If there are no permanent magnets, there are no computers. Or DVDs or DVRs or iPods, etc. Say farewell to your wired way of life.

And then there are the giant 1-ton magnets used in large windmill assemblies. Each windmill magnet is about the size of a car engine and uses 560 pounds of neodymium. The implication is that if the U.S. wants to erect windmills to generate electricity, the nation is making a long-term commitment to buy and use unprecedented amounts of neodymium. And there are NO substitutes. For just this one “clean energy” application, large amounts of rare earths — and the ores and mines to produce them — are essential.

There are many other clean-energy applications for rare earths as well, particularly in the now forming electric car industry. Neodymium magnets are key components in electric motors and regenerative braking systems used in hybrid vehicles. Without these magnets, no electric cars will ever roll off an assembly line, let alone whiz down an American highway.

Another significant demand for rare earths will come from large rechargeable batteries for electric cars. Nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) rechargeable batteries, for example, contain cerium and lanthanum in a form called “mischmetal.” And right now, NiMH batteries are the battery of choice for many hybrid vehicles. Overall, a typical hybrid electric vehicle can use about 50 pounds of rare earths — between the rechargeable battery pack, the permanent magnet motor and regenerative braking system. (Plus other tiny magnets for the sound system, power windows, power seats, windshield wipers, etc.)

So clearly, demand for rare earths is set to skyrocket. Just clean energy applications will drive unheralded demand for metals of which most investors — let alone consumers — have never heard.

It’s also important to keep in mind that almost none of the rare earths used in large power systems (like windmills) or electric vehicles (such as with NiMH batteries) are currently being recycled. The long lifetimes of the magnets and batteries, coupled with the lack of recycling technologies and dedicated facilities, means that any increase in supply can only come from new mining.

Another factor is that there appears to be an official Chinese policy to slow down export of rare earths. Chinese exports have decreased by 8% or so each of the past three years. Chinese suppliers have placed foreign customers on allocation, at reduced quantities from years past. The Chinese explain that they have closed mines for environmental reasons. Yet the Chinese also promise adequate supplies of rare earths if foreign users will move their industrial facilities into China.

According to Yoichi Sato, head of the Rare Earths Department of Japan’s Mitsui Industries, China is displaying its long-term strategy toward these critical elements. Mr. Sato believes that China is playing a complex game with the world’s rare earth consumers.

First, China is restricting rare earths exports, to provide its own high-tech industries with the chance to flourish and gain a competitive edge over rivals in Asia, Europe and the U.S. And second, it will force many foreign firms to move their high-tech factories and research centers to China to circumvent quotas. China, to be sure, has a small army of highly capable scientists and engineers who focus on rare earths applications — over 15,000 Ph.D.-level individuals, by one count.

Mitsui’s Mr. Sato believes that China will use its existing monopoly status in rare earths production to crush any competition that emerges. While about 42% of worldwide rare earths resources are outside China, there are NO non-Chinese sites with any significant processing or refining capacity. In the game of rare earths, China holds almost all of the cards.

Mr. Sato has stated, “Many people are looking at establishing alternative refineries and sources outside China, but the investment is not necessarily a sound one because of the threat of price revenge by China. If new projects emerge, as they have recently in Malaysia and Australia, China could just drop its prices and force rivals out of business.”

And as if on cue, in April 2009, Chinese firms used their financial muscle to buy large stakes in potential foreign rivals in Malaysia and Australia.

I hope that you now understand the importance of rare earths to the 21st-century economy of the West, particularly to the energy future of the U.S. I’m following this situation very closely. There ARE some potential investment opportunities in rare earths, but only in very small, thinly capitalized firms. I’ll share some of these investment ideas with you in future issues of my newsletter Outstanding Investments.

Until we meet again,
Byron King