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Friday, June 28, 2013

Winds of Change.... Warren Buffet is asking each addressee to forward this e-mail to a minimum of twenty people

Winds of Change.... 
Warren Buffet is asking each addressee to forward
this e-mail to a minimum of twenty people on their
address list; in turn ask each of those to do likewise.
In three days, most people in The United States of America will have this message.
This is one idea that really should be passed around
*Congressional
Reform Act of 2013
1. No Tenure / No Pension. A Congressman/woman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they're out of office.
2. Congress (past, present & future) participates
in Social Security.
All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the
   Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system and Congress participates with the American people. It may not be used for any other purpose
3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as all Americans do.
4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of CPI or 3%.
5. Congress loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.
6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.
7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen/women are void effective 12/31/13. The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen/women.
Congressmen/women made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career. The Founding Fathers envisioned
citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and back to work.
If each person contacts a minimum of twenty people then it will only take three days for most people ( in the U.S. ) to receive the message.
Don't you think it's time?
THIS IS HOW YOU FIX CONGRESS!
If you agree with the above, pass it on. If not, just delete.
You are one of my 20+
- Please
       keep it going,
      and thanks.

Victory in Massachusetts! Senator Ed Markey !

Victory in Massachusetts!



What a week -- Supreme Court decisions, special elections, Senate votes, filibusters in Texas and more. In the flurry of news, it's important to note we SCORED A HUGE VICTORY together Tuesday night when voters in Massachusetts chose to elect Ed Markey.

With Elizabeth Warren elected last November, now we have not one but TWO progressive champions serving the state of Massachusetts in the Senate.

Our volunteer calls, which reached tens of thousands of Massachusetts voters, made a difference -- and we couldn't have done it without our amazing volunteers and donors like you. But the fight continues on, with a number of competitive races just on the horizon so we need to start laying the groundwork now. Help us build power to elect progressive champions all across the country with a monthly recurring donation of $5. Become a member of the Monthly Majority today.

We were one of the first national progressive groups to fight for Ed Markey by reaching out to progressive voters through our virtual phonebank — first defeating his more conservative opponent in the primary, and then beating his GOP opponent in the general.

Now the next election on our radar is the special election in New Jersey, to replace Sen. Lautenberg (D-NJ) who passed away earlier this month. Already, NJ Gov. Chris Christie is trying to rig the race and weaken the Democratic ticket by having a special election on a Wednesday in October — just 20 days before he himself faces re-election. This blatantly politically-motivated decision will cost New Jersey $12 million in taxpayer dollars, and is a boondoggle designed to diminish Democratic turnout.1

That means it's on us, once again, to get out the vote and ensure New Jersey's Senate seat stays blue. Click here to become a monthly recurring donor by joining the Monthly Majority today.

We continue these fights because we know that without progressive champions in Congress as well as state legislatures and Governors around the country, we will be unable to pass meaningful legislation — whether it be immigration reform, making millionaires and corporations pay their fair share, preserving Medicare and Medicaid or protecting a woman's right to choose.

And this week's Supreme Court rulings on the Civil Rights Act and marriage equality were a strong reminder of just how much is at stake.2 We need good Senators that won't send people like Scalia and Alito to the Supreme Court, and who will vote to enact our progressive agenda.

With the special election in New Jersey, a soon-to-be open Senate seat in Montana and a close gubernatorial election against a Tea Party extremist in Virginia, we have multiple fronts we must tackle in the months ahead. Help USAction elect progressive champions to the Senate and beyond with a recurring donation of $5. Click here to become a member of the Monthly Majority today.

Sincerely,
Ross Wallen
USAction / TrueMajority

P.S. Can't donate monthly? Would you consider giving a one-time donation of $15 instead?
1 - "Chris Christie Calls Special Election To Fill Lautenberg Seat," the Huffington Post, June 4, 2013
2 - "Supreme Court Strikes Down Key Part of Voting Rights Act," New York Times, June 26, 2013
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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Stand with the women of Texas right now -- and join this fight today

Tuesday night was something special.

All across the country, hundreds of thousands of people were loudly standing up with Wendy Davis, the Texas state senator who spoke for 11 hours to filibuster a dangerous bill that would have closed dozens of health clinics that provide services to women across the state.

It was a rare -- and if the other side has their way, temporary -- victory in that fight. Texas Governor Rick Perry has already scheduled a special legislative session so they can bring it up again next week.

Here's OFA's message for them: We're still standing with Wendy, and we're not backing down.

If you're standing up for women in Texas and across the country, it's your turn to say it -- add your name today.

This isn't just a symbolic show of support.

This is about keeping the spotlight on what these legislators are trying to do in Texas, and starting to shine that light on some of the equally disturbing attacks on women that are making their way through state legislatures across the country.

Because of one powerful woman's voice -- and the thousands of people who had her back -- it didn't go Governor Perry's way on Tuesday night. He called it a "breakdown of decorum and decency" -- and what he's describing was the women of Texas, who literally had to scream to be heard to defend their rights from being stripped away by extremists.

OFA's fearless Texas State Coordinator Lauren Coffee has been on the ground with our organizers, working with our allies, and making damn sure that this fight isn't over.

Governor Perry and these extreme Texas legislators might eventually force their bill through. But even they know that what happened on Tuesday was just the start.

Across the country, hundreds of thousands of people tuned in to witness the ugly efforts to strip women's rights away.

No matter where these extreme measures pop up, OFA is going to be there, fighting for women.

Stand with the women of Texas right now -- and join this fight today:

http://my.barackobama.com/Stand-Up-For-Women

Thanks -- more soon,

Lindsay

Lindsay Siler
National Director of Issue Campaigns
Organizing for Action

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Saturday, June 22, 2013

Bet Against Big Pharma

Some will call this magic Others will see hope
Description

Some will call this “magic”
Others will see “hope”
Still others “dollar signs”
What do you see?

Dear Curious Reader,

If you are like me, you look at this image and you’re almost hypnotized by it. What is it, you wonder? And what is it doing here, in an investment newsletter?

Please let me answer these questions with one long question!

Will you join me on a visit to a private laboratory to meet some scientists who believe they have done the impossible – they may have figured out how to cure every disease known to man (YES, EVERY DISEASE!) and then decide if you want to invest in their disease-ending discovery—for what could surely be the greatest financial gain of your lifetime?

If you are interested, then let’s begin with an introduction and an explanation.

My name is Addison Wiggin. I run a financial investigation service in Baltimore. And for weeks now, I’ve been all but hypnotized by that image above. So what is it?

Take a look at the underside of your arm. Now imagine that you’re looking through a microscope and you can see one of the cells on your arm. It would look something like this

Description

It would just sit there and do what arms cells do.

Now imagine that very same cell being transformed into a beating heart cell! And imagine it being used to repair a damaged heart, or a blood vessel. This used to be the stuff of science fiction, right?

No longer.

It’s about to happen for real. And the very first patient for this “futuristic surgery” just happens to be our top investigator here at Technology Profits Confidential. He’s “patient zero.” He’s putting his own heart on the line.

You’re about to see how the aged and worn heart of a 60-year-old can be made vibrant and strong as a 29 year old again. Just as importantly…

You’re about to see how much money could be made by investing in this “magic”

You’ll also hear about a breakthrough in Alzheimer’s . . . and an announcement that could turn one tiny company with a funny name into the breakout story of 2013.

Make no mistake, the men and women we’ll meet today are one ambitious lot. They’re aiming to change our world in ways we can hardly imagine.

They want to completely replace some of
today’s most-popular medical technologies.

They plan to overthrow the status quo just as brutally as the Industrial Revolution once blew away family farms and creekside mills…

Yes, I’m suggesting that we are
once again on the edge of “revolution”

Because of the people we’ll meet today, our world is about to turn a very big corner. What we might discover around that corner is still largely unknown. Only one thing can be certain:

Today’s big economic headlines
and financial worry will be replaced
by an entirely new set of headlines.

Because of the people we’re about to meet.

We’ll see things today that are so futuristic, they’ll be dumbfounding to some — as if putting a fancy new smartphone into the hands of a Roman centurion.

But the guy holding that smartphone? And that Roman soldier? They’d both understand how much wealth has been ripped out of people’s hands in the last few years, and how quickly that wealth could all be gained back…

If you’ve followed our investigations in The Daily Reckoning over the years . . . you might be surprised by what we’re about to reveal. Frankly, we’re surprised ourselves. But also very pleased…

Because for many years, we wondered if this day would ever come.

Description

We wondered when the next great revolution would finally burst out of the labs and change our lives in ways that have been long on promise, but short on delivery.

Now, it is within sight. And we want you to fully understand its potential for you—in your personal life, and in your financial life. Beginning right now. Because the clock is ticking—literally.

So our team here at Technology Profits Confidential has written a strategy paper that you can download right away. But before you do, take a look at this big chart:

This is a 200+ year view of investing, and it tells a big story. We can see in the first 3 gray bars how history’s big economic

revolutions unfolded:

The explosion of big farming in the 1840s. Industrial upheaval in the early 1900s. Computers taking over in the last 40 years…

Focusing on those gray bars, we see how that was the best time to be investing:

Description
  • An Agricultural Revolution upset the old world of hunting and gathering . . . made big winners of Union Pacific Railroad and the Bank of the United States . . . and delivered 332% net gains to smart investors
  • An Industrial Revolution beat down the old craftsmen and hardened them into tradesmen, turning U.S. Steel and Standard Oil into the very icons of 20th-century hegemony . . . while delivering 423% net gains to smart investors
  • A Digital Revolution unleashed a new wave of creative destruction, taking out the old corner store and elevating companies like Microsoft and Apple . . . this time delivering incredible 1,654% gains to smartest investors

Was it great to be an investor at the start of these revolutions? You bet it was! Are we there again? Let’s look closer at these last few years, and see…

Over the past decade, our economy has suffered huge upheavals. One after another. And the cause of these upheavals gets a whole lot clearer when we think about them as “stages” in a revolution…

The first stage, what we call the “Great Delusion,” was a period when just about everyone bought into the idea of a bigger and bigger pie. The old laws of economics no longer applied. Housing prices could rise and rise forever. Money could be made and made like candy. This delusional thinking went right to the top…

Description

Washington came to think of itself as the source of all prosperity. To me, that’s like saying the tick is keeping the dog alive. It’s delusional.

So the markets had to impose some order on things. And they did, with an iron hand. The “Great Correction” wiped out seven trillion dollars of investor wealth in a single year.

With the economy in shambles, a bunch of bad actors then rushed into the economic vacuum and grabbed for whatever they could. It was the “Great Plunder.”

Some of these bad actors operate at the highest levels in politics and think of themselves as good Americans. Others operate in the financial centers and think of themselves as good capitalists. But they’re con artists, all of them.

They’ve gotten rich off the misery of others. They’ve taken an economy that was on its knees and kicked it to the ground. But as in all things, there is a natural cycle and now we are entering the fourth stage – which we call the “Great Reboot.”

This is when all systems have flatlined… When the economy is in shambles… When there is no longer anywhere to go, but up. This is when the system reboots, and fires back up again. When a new economy, a very different economy, rises up phoenix-like from the old.

We see this reboot as the beginning of the next revolution – the Synthetic Revolution.

And if this revolution is only as profitable as the three prior . . . IF IT’S ONLY AS GOOD AS AVERAGE . . . then we could see as much as a 800% leap forward in investment returns for smart investors.

That’s why we’re so excited . . . and inviting you to join us.

If this fourth revolution is as profitable as the three prior, smart investors could grow as much as 800% wealthier — that’s what I’m inviting you to join!

I’ve been watching this next great revolution unfold for some time now. It started kicking into high gear when computers got crazy fast. When those computers started turning raw data into something very valuable. This process, known as analytics, really cranked the gears. Every industry was affected. Computers began chewing up one industry after another, spitting out the old…

Description
  • In retail sales, it was Amazon and eBay chewing it up
  • In banking, it was ATMs and online services changing everything
  • In entertainment, it was downloads and Web streaming

The old mantra of “innovate or die” was replaced with “crunch data or die.”

Some of these companies used computers to study every footstep, hand motion and eye movement of a retail store’s shoppers for an entire year. Now they’re using that data to optimize the shopping experience and become more competitive, rewarding investors…

Other companies used computers to study every street, alley and back road traveled by EMT vehicles in order to shave response times, cover more territory and, again, reward investors…

Then there are the companies that interest us most — the companies that are analyzing all three billion base pairs in the human genome and…

Promising cures for every known illness
(because they are creating life itself)

These are the companies using analytics to figure out genetics and then create synthetic cures. In short, they are creating synthetic body parts. Soon ending the Alzheimer’s. Dissolving the tumors. Restoring memory to age 17 again…

This is no longer tomorrow’s story.

This revolution is now unfolding in laboratories tucked away in plain-looking business parks. For the most part, the media have been kept away. Most of this has been top secret, out of necessity.

We have a way in.

But before we can go into these “clean labs” and look under the microscopes…

And before we can talk seriously about the companies that’ll become the biggest names of our investing tomorrow…

I want you to feel comfortable with me as your “tour guide.” So a little history is in order:

I first got started with Bill Bonner back in early 1990s when — through the Daily Reckoning.com — we pretty much built the digital financial newsletter business. Back then, Wall Street’s commissioned salesmen ruled the financial roost. And they were experts at turning their clients’ money into their own…

So Bill and I decided to go head-to-head with Wall Street. We offered readers something entirely new: INDEPENDENT RECOMMENDATIONS. No products to move, no advertisers to please, no monkey business. We would stand or fall on the basis of our recommendations. Pure and simple (and, at the time, unique).

Wall Street went postal on us for busting up
their monopoly on “advice giving”

Back in the 1990s, we published our little black-and-white newsletter and told a handful of “pioneering” readers that the only way they could hope to protect themselves from the inflation that was ravaging the economy . . . was by buying gold.

As I said, Wall Street went postal on us for recommending something they couldn’t make a commission on. Of course, gold has climbed from $280 an ounce to $1,900 while Wall Street has been trying to discredit us.

And two decades and three best-selling books later, the value of INDEPENDENT RECOMMENDATIONS has been proven out again and again.

My favorite attack on us came in 2007. The financial media had been heaping abuse. Time magazine called me clueless, a member of “the Armageddon gang.” And how did the distinguished editors of Time arrive at this conclusion?

Because I was publicly calling the U.S. economy “a house of cards” and said “it’s about to collapse” and “here’s what you need to do.”

Recall that in 2007, the Dow had roared above 14,000 and nobody wanted the party to stop. But frankly, I wasn’t buying it.

I put my name on the line, and urged readers to first be careful in the real estate markets, and then to get out of the stock markets.

Description

Not many listened, though. And I grew frustrated. So frustrated, in fact, that I went out and made a documentary movie to try to shake some sense into people.

Our movie, I.O.U.S.A., was so well received and so persuasive that it was shortlisted for an Oscar. But all of our warnings fell on deaf ears.

And just a few months later, the housing market crashed and stocks followed — wiping out $7 trillion in investor wealth. We had seen it coming, but to little avail.

Description

Since so many other analysts had also “claimed” to have called the crash, CNBC’s Brian Sullivan did a story to see who actually got it right

Newsletter watchdog Mark Hulbert also investigated, and concluded:

“These guys have been warning about debt crises for years… they've certainly earned their bona fides.”

In all, there were six crucial calls that investment analysts should have made over the last 12 years. I am proud to say that I’m on record as having called all six, spot on. But that didn’t make me a happy man. I had tried to warn millions of people, using the tools of mass media. And I had failed…

So I decided to form an elite group on a limited distribution basis. The idea was to give just a small group of “clear headed” readers the high-level intelligence that’s so crucial to success in investing.And today I am issuing my seventh big-picture call about the investment markets:

Description

We’re now entering the “Fourth Great Revolution” and early investors could be rewarded with as much as 800%+ gains.

So let’s get right to it. Let’s go visit a place I call “the valley of the exponential.”

This is a place where the entrepreneurs don’t think from Point A to Point B. They think from Point 1 to Point 1. It’s this kind of exponential thinking that distinguishes a “going nowhere” investment from a “I can’t stop bragging to the boys at the club” performance…

You can’t overestimate the power of the exponential. Let’s have some fun seeing why. Let’s pick an impossible task, say, draining the entire ocean with a 10-gallon bucket.

Impossible, right?

Well, let’s stipulate that (1) you’re strong, (2) you can bail fast all day long and (3) you double your output every day—that is, you work exponentially. How long will it take you to drain the ocean?

Just fifty days!

Oh, you won’t notice much difference in ocean depth until day 45, but then the exponential magic kicks in!

That’s the kind of magic we’ll be seeing in the fourth great revolution, and nowhere more than in the valley of the exponential – San Diego…

There are some 550 companies in San Diego working with synthetic biology. We’ve nicknamed them “SynBio” firms. They’ve already brought to market 25 products and have another 300 in the pipeline…

Description

And the leader of this SynBio future is a man named Craig Venter. He’s the guy who told the government to go fly a kite in the ‘90s and then went off and sequenced the human genome in about 50 years less time than the government would have taken…

His company in San Diego is called Synthetic Genomics. He could be days away from making a major announcement about a product he’s been working on, in total secret. We’ve received some advance intel on this announcement, and I’ll share it with you shortly. But it’s critical that you’re on board with our thinking here.

You have to believe, as we do, that now is the ideal time to be investing in this new revolution…

Knowing when to move is so important. You don’t want to be too early, or too late.

There was certainly a lot of hype in past few years about the sequencing of the human genome. A lot of companies got into the game early, and now have arrows in their backs to prove it. But let’s see how far we’ve advanced from those frontier days.

A man who knows how far we’ve come is Juan Enriquez. He’s one of the most successful venture capitalists working today. He’s made many millions betting on start-ups. This is what Juan told me about the state of the industry recently:

“We can now begin to say to a little tiny cell, I want you to produce the equivalent of gasoline. I want you to produce the equivalent of this specific medicine. I want you to produce a specific vaccine . . . It’s gonna be the ability to program life—the single biggest driver of the global economy going forward over the next two or three decades.”

Now I know that the very idea of “programming life” is prickly to some. There’s this Frankenstein notion that we’ll create some kind of monster life-form…

And no doubt something will escape from the lab, and maybe even reproduce. When scientists insist they’ve got it under control, we’re reminded of the Jurassic Park film when Dr. Malcolm warns, “Life finds a way.”

But science will march on. It always has.

Description

Scientists will learn to control their creations, as they have in the past. So we are less concerned with that . . . and more interested in knowing which products will be coming out of these labs, and whether people will pay for them.

We’re also interested in knowing if big companies will be stepping in, swallowing up the little guys for a fast pop for investors…

And one look at the SynBio market right now tells us that things are popping.

Deals are being made left and right. Big Pharma is hot on an acquisition binge — forced into spending big bucks on little company products in hopes of refilling their dying pipelines. So there’s quick money that could be made right now. According to industry analysts, a lot of money…

Since SynBio is a new market, it’s still small. Only about $2 billion in sales logged last year. But SynBio is growing nearly 46% year over year. No other market is growing nearly as fast…

This chart comes from a number of sources, all brought together to confirm for us that 10x growth in SynBio is in store for the next three years alone. That’s exponential growth kicking in…

Which makes now the perfect time to pick up certain companies for 1/10th of their expected market premium…

Two companies top our list. They’ve both created REAL products that are sailing through testing and have the potential to actually reverse and cure major diseases…

Description

The first company, which we’ve code named SynBio 1, is an “umbrella” company. They’ve snapped up a bunch of companies so that can control the life-creation puzzle from start to finish. They are on track to make TEN blockbuster announcements in the months ahead…

They’ve got promising breakthroughs for…

  • Eye diseases — including macular degeneration
  • Neurological disorders — including Parkinson’s and multiple sclerosis
  • Coronary diseases and heart failure
  • Cancers — including breast, lung, bladder, uterus, stomach, colon

These breakthroughs are so promising, they have attracted the attention of a former FDA chief. Dr. Andrew von Eschenbach has signed on with SynBio 1 to help them finalize products, and get to market fast. Nobody’s going to be better at that than an FDA chief!

They’ve also cut a deal with Teva, the world’s largest generic drug maker, giving them a sales channel to take their products onto every continent…

And they’ve got a subsidiary in China, giving SynBio 1 a huge advantage in the world’s biggest market.

And how did we learn about this gem of a company?

We learned about it from Patrick Cox, our in-house expert on biotech. You already know Patrick by his skin cells. That arm cell? The one that was turned into a beating heart cell?

It belongs to Patrick Cox. He is, in fact, “patient zero” in the synthetic revolution. His heart is being rebuilt to be as strong as it was when he was 29…

Back in his twenties, Patrick was a software developer at the start of the digital revolution. And at the heart of it. He helped launch Netscape – the first real internet company. His analysis has appeared in InfoWorld, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times and Reason magazine. Patrick has gone on Nightline and Crossfire to brief on his discoveries.

On our last visit to the labs at SynBio 1, Patrick met with the man who may someday be known as the father of regenerative medicine. Today he is known to our subscribers as Dr. West…

I want to share a partial transcript of their recent meeting:

DR. WEST
We’ll begin by taking cells from the body that are aged cells and putting them in the dish and starting a culture. Once we have those cells, we’ve captured them forever, so the cells can be frozen and thawed and used. And we will use them today in a reprogramming experiment to take the cells back in time, like in a time machine.

MR. COX
So without major surgery, with a simple procedure, I’ll have a rebuilt heart. It will be functionally the same as the clean beating heart of a 29-year-old. I don’t know of ANY technologies as transformational as this. The ability to repair or replace worn-out body parts, from hearts to brains, will totally change our world, change our lives. It will also yield profits unmatched since the last great revolution.

DR. WEST
The good news is that the science is speeding along at a rate that even the most optimistic of us didn’t foresee…

Dr. West is truly changing the way we’ll live. But more than that. His company is already delivering products that require fewer approvals from the regulators.

SynBio 1‘s first big product is all the rage at the plastic surgery conferences.

You see, the plastic surgeons’ biggest problem has always been the hit-or-miss nature of their work. They go in and harvest some fat, spin it around and then squirt it back in someplace else. Interesting business. Except when the fat doesn’t cooperate.

So along comes SynBio 1 and their new hydrogel compound. This “hydrogel” of theirs has the consistency of molding clay. A modern Michelangelo can form exactly the right look — nothing toxic, no side effects.

Those who’ve used it love it, and our interest in it can be summed up in 4 lines:

  • Plastic surgeons could be guaranteed the perfect sculpting experience
  • Price is no issue in this high-margin business — people will pay
  • Global marketplace for plastic surgery is $40 billion a year
  • Revolutionary product, exponential potential

And this is only one of SynBio 1’s products. They have identified more than 200 different cell types that they can synthetically reproduce. Which is why universities across the country are testing them out…

  • UCLA —testing on stroke victims
  • Cedars-Sinai Medical Center — repairing early-stage degenerative disc disease
  • University of Wisconsin — fixing damaged vocal cords
  • And dozens more

The studies are stacking up. I want you to see one of these studies up close. This one has probably captured the most interest in the scientific community. It’s titled:

Description

“Functional Performance of Human Cardiosphere-Derived Cells Delivered in an in Situ Polymerizable Hyaluronan-Gelatin Hydrogel”

Doctors with us today know from the title that we’re talking about game-changing research for heart patients

According to the study, the procedure’s effectiveness “was increased by nearly an order of magnitude… and exhibited superior benefits.”

This is obviously huge because, as you know, coronary disease is the leading cause of death. One in three of us will die from it. Having a solution that changes that — changes it dramatically — now that’s the definition of a blockbuster…

Plus SynBio 1 has this space sealed up. They haven’t just cracked the DNA code, they’ve got the “rights” to the SP100 gene. This is the crucial gene at the nexus of cellular regeneration. If you want to rebuild a heart, or any other vital organ, you need the SP100 gene solution.

SynBio 1 owns the patents to this gene’s use, and as I said, they’ve identified more than 200 different cell types they can use it on.

That’s like giving them the keys to a kingdom…
they could OWN regenerative medicine.

Either they’ll be lead developer for an entire line of medical solutions that people want… or they’ll be licensing their patented therapies to other companies. It’s a win/win position to be in.

And we are expecting SynBio 1’s stock to go wild on each new announcement.

If you’re ready, we can show you:

  1. How to acquire shares of SynBio 1 at the best possible time
  2. And how to hold for the longest run of growth possible.

Or, first take a look at what subscribers to our research have said about past recommendations from our firm:

Prelude to Currency Wars

The Daily Reckoning Presents

Prelude to Currency Wars
by James Rickards
On August 15, 1971, a quiet Sunday evening, President Richard Nixon took to the airwaves, preempting the most popular television show in America, to announce his New Economic Policy. The government was imposing national price controls and a steep surtax on foreign imports and banning the conversion of dollars into gold. The country was in the midst of a crisis, the result of an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar, and the president had determined that extreme measures were necessary.

Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and another crisis of confidence in the dollar is on its way. This time the consequences will be far worse than those confronting Nixon. The growth in globalization, derivatives and leverage over the past forty years have made financial panic and contagion all but impossible to contain.

The new crisis will likely begin in the currency markets and spread quickly to stocks, bonds and commodities. When the dollar collapses, the dollar-denominated markets will collapse too. Panic will quickly spread throughout the world.

As a result, another U.S. president, possibly President Obama, will take to the airwaves and cyberspace to announce a radical plan of intervention to save the dollar from complete collapse, invoking legal authority already in place today. This new plan may even involve a return to the gold standard. If gold is used, it will be at a dramatically higher price in order to support the bloated money supply with the fixed quantity of gold available. Americans who had invested in gold earlier will be confronted with a 90% "windfall profits" tax on their newfound wealth, imposed in the name of fairness. European and Japanese gold presently stored in New York will be confiscated and converted to use in the service of the New Dollar Policy. No doubt the Europeans and Japanese will be given receipts for their former gold, convertible into New Dollars at a new, higher price.

Alternatively, the president may eschew a return to gold and use an array of capital controls and global IMF money creation to reliquify and stabilize the situation. This IMF global bailout will not be in old, nonconvertible dollars but in a newly printed global currency called the SDR. Life will go on but the international monetary system will never be the same.

This isn't far-fetched speculation. It has all happened before. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated and capital controls have been imposed. The United States has not been immune to these acts; in fact, America has been a leading advocate of dollar debasement from the 1770s to the 1970s, through the Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression and Carter-era hyperinflation. The fact that a currency collapse has not happened in a generation just implies that the next crash is overdue. This is not a matter of guesswork -- the preconditions are already in place.

Today, The U.S. Federal Reserve, under the guidance of Chairman Ben Bernanke, is engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance. Beginning in 2007, the Fed fought off economic collapse by cutting short-term interest rates and lending freely. Eventually rates reached zero, and the Fed appeared to be out of bullets.

Then, in 2008, the Fed found a new bullet: quantitative easing. While the Fed describes the program as an easing of financial conditions through the lowering of long-term interest rates, this is essentially a program of printing money to spur growth.

The Fed is attempting to inflate asset prices, commodity prices and consumer prices to offset the natural deflation that follows a crash. It is basically engaged in a game of tug-of-war against the deflation that normally accompanies a depression. As in a typical tug-of-war, not much happens at first. The teams are evenly matched and there is no motion for a while, just lots of tension on the rope. Eventually one side will collapse, and the other side will drag the losers over the line to claim victory. This is the essence of the Fed's gamble. It must cause inflation before deflation prevails; it must win the tug-of-war.

In a tug-of-war, the rope is the channel through which stress is conveyed from one side to the other. In the contest between inflation and deflation, the rope is the dollar. The dollar bears all the stress of the opposing forces and sends that stress around the world. The value of the dollar is the way to tell who is winning the tug-of-war. This particular tug-of-war is actually a full-on currency war, and it is not really a game but an attack on the value of every stock, bond and commodity in the world.
In the best of all possible worlds for the Fed, asset values are propped up, banks get healthier, government debt melts away and no one seems to notice. Yet, by printing money on an unprecedented scale, Bernanke has become a twenty-first-century Pangloss, hoping for the best and quite unprepared for the worst.

There is a very real danger that the Fed's money printing could suddenly morph into hyperinflation. Even if inflation does not affect consumer prices, it can show up in asset prices leading to bubbles in stocks, commodities, land and other hard assets -- bubbles that are prone to burst like tech stocks in 2000 or housing in 2007. The Fed claims to have the tools needed to avert these outcomes, but those tools have never been tried in these circumstances or on such a large scale. The Fed's remedies -- higher rates and tight money -- are likely to lead straight to the kind of depression the Fed set out to avoid in the first place. The U.S. economy is resting on a knife's edge between depression and hyperinflation. Millions of investors, business owners and workers wonder how much longer the Fed can balance the knife.

Worse yet, none of this happens in a vacuum. If the Fed's policy manipulations were limited to the U.S. economy, that would be one thing, but they are not. The effects of printing dollars are global; by engaging in quantitative easing, the Fed has effectively declared currency war on the world. Many of the feared effects of Fed policy in the United States are already appearing overseas. Printing dollars at home means higher inflation in China, higher food prices in Egypt and stock bubbles in Brazil. Printing money means that U.S. debt is devalued so foreign creditors get paid back in cheaper dollars. The devaluation means higher unemployment in developing economies as their exports become more expensive for Americans. The resulting inflation also means higher prices for inputs needed in developing economies like copper, corn, oil and wheat. Foreign countries have begun to fight back against U.S.-caused inflation through subsidies, tariffs and capital controls; the currency war is expanding fast.

While Fed money printing on a trillion-dollar scale may be new, currency wars are not. Currency wars have been fought before -- twice in the twentieth century alone -- and they always end badly. At best, currency wars offer the sorry spectacle of countries stealing growth from trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation and actual violence as the scramble for resources leads to invasion and war. The historical precedents are sobering enough, but the dangers today are even greater, exponentially increased by the scale and complexity of financial linkages throughout the world.

Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The economists' latest solutions -- such as the global currency called the SDR -- present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.

Among the new dangers are threats not just to America's economic well-being but to our national security as well. As national security experts examine currency issues traditionally left to the Treasury, new threats continually come into focus, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the ultimate danger of the collapse of the dollar itself. Senior military and intelligence officials have now come to the realization that America's unique military predominance can be maintained only with an equally unique and predominant role for the dollar. If the dollar falls, America's national security falls with it.

While the outcome of the current currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors.

Regards,

James Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
Excerpt from the book Currency Wars, published here.

[A Special Note from Addison Wiggin: In a few short weeks, Jim Rickards will be speaking at this year's Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver, British Columbia. He joins an all-star lineup of speakers, including Symposium favorites Barry Ritholtz, Rick Rule, Doug Casey and Chris Mayer, to name just a few.

The event is fast approaching, and with its perennial list of world-class presenters, it's not uncommon for it to sell out. And this year's theme, A Tale of Two Americas, is sure to attract a record crowd. Secure your seat now, while spots are still available.]
James RickardsJames G. Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He is a writer and is a regular commentator on finance. Rickards advised clients of an impending financial collapse, of a decline in the dollar and a sharp rise in the price of gold, all years in advance. Rickards is the author of The New York Times bestseller Currency Wars, published in 2011.
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Thursday, June 20, 2013

Addison Wiggin contemplating the market's reaction to the Fed (after a long nap)...


addison wiggin Yesterday, we drank coffee and waited...

To pass the time, you'll recall, we muddled through an Edinburgh University study of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan's confidence level and whether it could be used to forecast movements in the gold price.

Now we know the answer to a slightly different question. The lack of confidence others have in current Fed chair Ben Bernanke's statements can certainly move the gold price... and the price of everything else, too.

Down.

"Pick your poison," chimed in The Rude Awakening's Greg Guenthner this morning. "Bonds. Stocks. Emerging markets. Commodities. Wherever you decide to turn this morning, you'll see red on your screen."

No kidding...


Crimson Shades of '08

Ouch. Where does all that money go?

"Money heaven..." Dave Gonigam, our compatriot at The 5 Min. Forecast, suggests. What comes "out of thin air"... returns from whence it came.

"American investors have taken out more margin loans than ever before," observes Floyd Norris in The New York Times. When the stock market hits consecutive highs, as it has for the past 6 months, individual investors pile in... and are willing to borrow money to speculate.

"Speculative investing has grown among retail investors," Norris continues, "reaching levels that in the past indicated the market was getting to unsustainable levels and might be in for a fall."

Floyd offers U.S. margin debt as a percentage of U.S. GDP as a guide:


"The first time in recent decades that total margin debt exceeded 2.25% of GDP came at the end of 1999, amid the technology stock bubble. Margin debt fell after that bubble burst, but began to rise again during the housing boom -- when anecdotal evidence said some investors were using their investments to secure loans that went for down payments on homes.

"That boom in margin loans also ended badly."

Will this time end badly? We don't know... but we're willing to hazard a guess.

"The rising level of debt is seen as a measure of investor confidence," says Alexandra Scaggs in today's Wall Street Journal, "as investors are more willing to take out debt against investments when shares are rising and they have more value in their portfolios to borrow against.

"The latest rise has been fueled by low interest rates and a 16% year-to-date stock market rally."


Summary: The Fed pumps hot money into the banking system. Excess reserves beget margin loans. Margin loans, by definition, fuel speculation.

Then, poof.

"In my opinion," writes one contemplative reader following our investment thesis with some skepticism, "trying to use gold, tulips or any substance to control bankers and politicians is a cop-out. It's like using burqas in Islam to prevent men from getting bothered by attractive women... [these speculative rallies] are part of our nature."

Indeed, the easy money works great... until it doesn't work anymore.

"I am sure politicians," the reader goes on, "if really interested in devaluing the dollar with gold as a backup could figure a way to manipulate the price of gold for their own use. Isn't this what politicians do best?"

Perhaps they ought to try it. Just a little...

Alas, devaluing the dollar, sans gold, is part and parcel of the Fed's currency war against other deflating fiat currencies. James Rickards, author of Currency Wars and today's guest essay for The Daily Reckoning, knows all too well. In today's episode, Mr. Rickards shows how you're stuck in the middle of the Fed's tug-of-war match with the forces of deflation...

[Ed. Note. Mr. Rickards will be joining us as a speaker at this year's Investment Symposium at the Fairmont Hotel in Vancouver, British Columbia, July 23-26, 2013. There are fewer than 200 seats left. If you'd like to attend, hurry up and reserve yours, here.]