June 14, 2011 9:36 am
With the US’ nine-plus percent unemployment rate — and when no stone should be left unturned in boosting jobs — there’s a huge, and currently untapped, potential job creation engine in tourism.
Since just last April, Brazilians have spent $1.4 billion as tourists, an 83 percent increase from that same time frame the year before. However, it turns out those dollars are largely not being spent in the US. The giant and growing BRIC tourist numbers are not making it to the US to spend their money, and create jobs in the tourism industry, even though they want to, simply because it’s too hard to get in the US.
Time Magazine explains:
“The most lucrative target is Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy. In the past, most Brazilians used to come to the United States looking for work; now they come to spend money and create jobs. The spending would help the U.S. economy tremendously. The American tourism market has recovered slowly since 9-11, but it missed out on a decade of growth, according to Roger Dow, president of the U.S. Travel Association.
“‘We call it the lost decade. If we had just stayed on pace with the rest of the world, we would have generated $606 billion more dollars and have 467,000 more jobs right now,’ Dow said recently at the Pow Wow tourism trade show in San Francisco. The good news, he says, is that the problem is still fixable, and has some inexpensive solutions. By just extending the visa-waiver program to Brazil and Chile, he says, the United States could double visits from those countries in one year and quickly generate $10.3 billion in new tourism revenue while creating 95,100 new American jobs.
“The Travel Association has also proposed a simple, four-point plan for ‘common sense entry reforms’ that Dow says would create an estimated 1.3 million new jobs and bring in $858 billion into the U.S. economy by 2020. He insists the entry reforms, visa waivers and other ‘trusted traveler’ initiatives would not compromise U.S. national security, rather streamline it and let Homeland Security ‘focus more on finding bad guys rather than harassing the good guys.’”
Only 36 nations are on the US’ visa waiver list, and not a single one is in Latin America. Perhaps it’s time to revisit a policy that was designed with the US’ best interest in mind… for the US’ best interest. You can read more details in Time’s coverage on how letting Brazilians in could help the US economy.
Best,
Rocky Vega,
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Author: Daily Reckoning - Rocky Vega Rocky Vega is a regular contributor to The Daily Reckoning. Previously, he was founding publisher of UrbanTurf and RFID Update, which he operated from Brazil, Chile, and Puerto Rico, and associate publisher of FierceFinance. He specialized in direct marketing at MBI, facilitated MIT Sloan School of Management programs, and has been featured on CBS. Vega graduated with honors from Harvard University, where he was on the board of Let’s Go Publications and directed business programs involving McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, and Harvard Business School faculty. He is also enrolled at the Stockholm School of Economics.
Showing posts with label Brazil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brazil. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Friday, January 8, 2010
The Changing Role of the Nation-State
Whiskey & Gunpowder By Byron King
January 8, 2010 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Looking at the bigger picture, the U.S. has its troubles. But the U.S. also has many unique economic, cultural and historical strengths — if the national leadership can keep its eye on the ball. Thing is, we’re in for some tough innings.
The world is experiencing what some commentators call “the rise of the rest.” Growth in China, India, Brazil and smaller actors is creating a world where many other countries are moving up to America’s level of economic clout and self-assertion. No other one nation can challenge the U.S. at every level. But many nations can, and do, challenge the U.S. at one level or another.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
A key development is that the very role of nation-states is becoming less defined. Non-state actors are wielding more and more clout. Examples include Al Qaeda in terms of a military and terrorist challenge, displaying the sharp edge of militant Islam. Or there are the Mexican narco-gangs that are engaged in a quiet civil war within Mexico.
On the more benign side, there are non-government organizations (NGOs) such as those that are driving much of the world environmental movement. Indeed, near 25,000 NGO representatives were registered at the recent Copenhagen climate summit talks.
In a recent book entitled Superclass, author David Rothkopf argues that the influence of nation-states is waning on many of the most critical issues of our time. Rothkopf argues that the traditional systems for addressing global issues among nation-states are more ineffective than ever. Thus there’s an emerging power void.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
This power void is being filled by a small group of players, which Rothkopf refers to as “the superclass” — a new global elite who are much better suited to operating on the global stage and influencing global outcomes than the vast majority of national political leaders.
It makes for a two edged sword. Some of these new elite are from business and finance, and are subject to traditional forms of influence and suasion, not to mention the rule of law. “Some,” writes Rothkopf, “are masters of new or traditional media, some are religious leaders, and a few are top officials of those governments that do have the ability to project their influence globally.”
Others of the superclass, according to Rothkopf, are members of “a kind of shadow elite — criminals and terrorists.”
In both leadership and accountability, there’s quite a difference between what we’re dealing with in the developed world versus the developing world.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
Nation-states in the developing world are having an increasingly hard time fulfilling the expectations of their citizens. Thus more and more, and the international system is undergoing an almost lawless evolution.
We see examples in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where small fiefdoms and powerful warlords rule much of the day. Or we see it in the broken system of governance in Nigeria, where armed rebels are wreaking havoc on oil production. Or close to home, we have to wonder how things will play out down in Mexico.
This crisis of instability and lack of control is compounded by the absence of a global strategy to combat the asymmetric threats that the U.S. and other major players face. It’s going to make for many more interesting developments — and investment opportunities — as we turn the page on the calendar and enter the new year.
Until we meet again,
Byron W. King
P.S.: Increasing instability around the world is just about certain at this point, but that’s just going to mean good things for investments in oil and gold.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
In 2009 I banged the drum hard on oil, particularly offshore oil producers and deep-water plays, including subsea equipment. Those sectors have done well. In fact, one of my subsea equipment builders is up over 80%.
To learn more, just click here.
January 8, 2010 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Looking at the bigger picture, the U.S. has its troubles. But the U.S. also has many unique economic, cultural and historical strengths — if the national leadership can keep its eye on the ball. Thing is, we’re in for some tough innings.
The world is experiencing what some commentators call “the rise of the rest.” Growth in China, India, Brazil and smaller actors is creating a world where many other countries are moving up to America’s level of economic clout and self-assertion. No other one nation can challenge the U.S. at every level. But many nations can, and do, challenge the U.S. at one level or another.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
A key development is that the very role of nation-states is becoming less defined. Non-state actors are wielding more and more clout. Examples include Al Qaeda in terms of a military and terrorist challenge, displaying the sharp edge of militant Islam. Or there are the Mexican narco-gangs that are engaged in a quiet civil war within Mexico.
On the more benign side, there are non-government organizations (NGOs) such as those that are driving much of the world environmental movement. Indeed, near 25,000 NGO representatives were registered at the recent Copenhagen climate summit talks.
In a recent book entitled Superclass, author David Rothkopf argues that the influence of nation-states is waning on many of the most critical issues of our time. Rothkopf argues that the traditional systems for addressing global issues among nation-states are more ineffective than ever. Thus there’s an emerging power void.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
This power void is being filled by a small group of players, which Rothkopf refers to as “the superclass” — a new global elite who are much better suited to operating on the global stage and influencing global outcomes than the vast majority of national political leaders.
It makes for a two edged sword. Some of these new elite are from business and finance, and are subject to traditional forms of influence and suasion, not to mention the rule of law. “Some,” writes Rothkopf, “are masters of new or traditional media, some are religious leaders, and a few are top officials of those governments that do have the ability to project their influence globally.”
Others of the superclass, according to Rothkopf, are members of “a kind of shadow elite — criminals and terrorists.”
In both leadership and accountability, there’s quite a difference between what we’re dealing with in the developed world versus the developing world.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
Nation-states in the developing world are having an increasingly hard time fulfilling the expectations of their citizens. Thus more and more, and the international system is undergoing an almost lawless evolution.
We see examples in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where small fiefdoms and powerful warlords rule much of the day. Or we see it in the broken system of governance in Nigeria, where armed rebels are wreaking havoc on oil production. Or close to home, we have to wonder how things will play out down in Mexico.
This crisis of instability and lack of control is compounded by the absence of a global strategy to combat the asymmetric threats that the U.S. and other major players face. It’s going to make for many more interesting developments — and investment opportunities — as we turn the page on the calendar and enter the new year.
Until we meet again,
Byron W. King
P.S.: Increasing instability around the world is just about certain at this point, but that’s just going to mean good things for investments in oil and gold.
American Public Policy and Government Accountability
In 2009 I banged the drum hard on oil, particularly offshore oil producers and deep-water plays, including subsea equipment. Those sectors have done well. In fact, one of my subsea equipment builders is up over 80%.
To learn more, just click here.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Brazil’s National Commitment to Energy — Bankrolled by China
Whiskey & Gunpowder
By Byron King
June 12, 2009
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Brazil is making a national commitment to develop energy resources located far offshore in the South Atlantic. Indeed, no nation has ever advanced such an ambitious plan for long-term comprehensive offshore development. And it’s being bankrolled by China.
Much of Brazil’s South Atlantic development will require drilling wells in waters up to two miles deep, through four-five miles of rock beneath the seabed. The prize at the end will be oil deposits with reserves estimated in the tens of billions of barrels. With access to this offshore bounty, Brazil expects to take its place among the first ranks of energy-producing nations in the world.
Brazil’s state-controlled national oil company (NOC), Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) plans to spend over $175 billion in the next five years just on offshore development. The immense investment involves buying and building dozens of new drill ships and seagoing platforms, along with many dozens more support and servicing vessels. Petrobras will lay thousands of miles of pipelines on the seafloor, connecting massive complexes of subsea equipment that will sit atop hundreds of oil wells.
To finance much of this development, Brazil has turned to China. With the active support of the Chinese government, many Chinese banks are lining up to extend loans to Brazil’s energy sector. Right now, there is an agreement for a Chinese consortium to lend Petrobras $10 billion. In exchange, Petrobras will eventually ship 200,000 barrels of oil per day to Chinese refineries. There are more such long-term finance supply deals in the works.
The Chinese government has established strategic guidelines for its national firms. That is, the Chinese government has set goals for Chinese firms to supply China’s long-term needs for energy and other natural resources. The Chinese are looking well ahead into the rest of this century, and even into the 22nd century. They want to ensure their future access to a diverse global supply chain, as well as win entrée into resource-rich regions of the world for Chinese industries and support firms.
Why are the Chinese receiving such a warm welcome in Brazil? According to Sergio Gabrielli, CEO of Petrobras, “The U.S. has a problem. There isn’t someone in the U.S. government that we can sit down with and have the kinds of discussions we’re having with the Chinese.”
In other words, there is a new geopolitics of oil at work. In the olden days, it would have been large international oil companies (IOCs) like Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP walking into a room to meet with the Brazilians. The IOCs were the only game in town. They controlled the financing and the technology for large developments.
But today, the biggest deals begin with a political understanding at the top, hammered out between the highest levels of the respective governments. This top-down political deal making cuts out the IOCs, except where they have technical expertise that can be hired on a contract basis.
In essence, we are witnessing the end of the post-World War II economic construct of the world’s financial system. That construct always had a Western bias. But the 2008 crash of the Western business and financial model has changed everything. It has left a barren worldwide financial landscape for large development projects. Most traditional Western financing is simply not available for large projects. And as French author Francois Rabelais (1494-1553) once noted, “Nature abhors a vacuum.”
Thus has the Western financial crisis handed well-capitalized, government-backed Chinese banks and industrial firms an unmatched competitive advantage. With the traditional credit markets dry, Chinese banks have transformed into key lenders for the resource developments that will fuel the next generation of humanity. Indeed, for now, the Chinese are the world’s ONLY lenders for large resource development projects. See Brazil, Exhibit 1.
China’s Rare Earths Monopoly — All But Insurmountable
China’s support for Brazilian energy development is not the only angle that the Chinese government is pursuing for its future gain. China’s large reserves of foreign exchange, as well as its national strategic focus, has enabled incomparable — even insurmountable — progress for the Middle Kingdom to corner the world supply of substances called rare earths. Here’s the production chart for the past half century. Obviously, something is going on here.
Now that we’ve seen this chart, the questions arise: What are rare earths? And why are they important?
Rare earths are the 15 elements within the lanthanide series of the periodic table, plus the elements yttrium and scandium. The best known are lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, praseodymium, gadolinium, europium and samarium.
Here’s why rare earths are important. They’re used in a wide range of industrial and electronic applications. For many years, large amounts of lanthanum and cerium have been used in petroleum refining, with the result of increasing yields from each barrel of oil by about 10% while extending the life of other expensive catalysts like platinum. And rare earths find their way into myriad other applications, from aerospace super-alloys to rechargeable cell phone batteries.
More recently, large volumes of rare earths (especially neodymium) have gone into magnets. In fact, rare earths are a key component in strong, permanent magnets. It’s not those cute little refrigerator magnets; your computer contains a number of tiny magnets in its hard drive. If there are no permanent magnets, there are no computers. Or DVDs or DVRs or iPods, etc. Say farewell to your wired way of life.
And then there are the giant 1-ton magnets used in large windmill assemblies. Each windmill magnet is about the size of a car engine and uses 560 pounds of neodymium. The implication is that if the U.S. wants to erect windmills to generate electricity, the nation is making a long-term commitment to buy and use unprecedented amounts of neodymium. And there are NO substitutes. For just this one “clean energy” application, large amounts of rare earths — and the ores and mines to produce them — are essential.
There are many other clean-energy applications for rare earths as well, particularly in the now forming electric car industry. Neodymium magnets are key components in electric motors and regenerative braking systems used in hybrid vehicles. Without these magnets, no electric cars will ever roll off an assembly line, let alone whiz down an American highway.
Another significant demand for rare earths will come from large rechargeable batteries for electric cars. Nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) rechargeable batteries, for example, contain cerium and lanthanum in a form called “mischmetal.” And right now, NiMH batteries are the battery of choice for many hybrid vehicles. Overall, a typical hybrid electric vehicle can use about 50 pounds of rare earths — between the rechargeable battery pack, the permanent magnet motor and regenerative braking system. (Plus other tiny magnets for the sound system, power windows, power seats, windshield wipers, etc.)
So clearly, demand for rare earths is set to skyrocket. Just clean energy applications will drive unheralded demand for metals of which most investors — let alone consumers — have never heard.
It’s also important to keep in mind that almost none of the rare earths used in large power systems (like windmills) or electric vehicles (such as with NiMH batteries) are currently being recycled. The long lifetimes of the magnets and batteries, coupled with the lack of recycling technologies and dedicated facilities, means that any increase in supply can only come from new mining.
Another factor is that there appears to be an official Chinese policy to slow down export of rare earths. Chinese exports have decreased by 8% or so each of the past three years. Chinese suppliers have placed foreign customers on allocation, at reduced quantities from years past. The Chinese explain that they have closed mines for environmental reasons. Yet the Chinese also promise adequate supplies of rare earths if foreign users will move their industrial facilities into China.
According to Yoichi Sato, head of the Rare Earths Department of Japan’s Mitsui Industries, China is displaying its long-term strategy toward these critical elements. Mr. Sato believes that China is playing a complex game with the world’s rare earth consumers.
First, China is restricting rare earths exports, to provide its own high-tech industries with the chance to flourish and gain a competitive edge over rivals in Asia, Europe and the U.S. And second, it will force many foreign firms to move their high-tech factories and research centers to China to circumvent quotas. China, to be sure, has a small army of highly capable scientists and engineers who focus on rare earths applications — over 15,000 Ph.D.-level individuals, by one count.
Mitsui’s Mr. Sato believes that China will use its existing monopoly status in rare earths production to crush any competition that emerges. While about 42% of worldwide rare earths resources are outside China, there are NO non-Chinese sites with any significant processing or refining capacity. In the game of rare earths, China holds almost all of the cards.
Mr. Sato has stated, “Many people are looking at establishing alternative refineries and sources outside China, but the investment is not necessarily a sound one because of the threat of price revenge by China. If new projects emerge, as they have recently in Malaysia and Australia, China could just drop its prices and force rivals out of business.”
And as if on cue, in April 2009, Chinese firms used their financial muscle to buy large stakes in potential foreign rivals in Malaysia and Australia.
I hope that you now understand the importance of rare earths to the 21st-century economy of the West, particularly to the energy future of the U.S. I’m following this situation very closely. There ARE some potential investment opportunities in rare earths, but only in very small, thinly capitalized firms. I’ll share some of these investment ideas with you in future issues of my newsletter Outstanding Investments.
Until we meet again,
Byron King
By Byron King
June 12, 2009
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
Brazil is making a national commitment to develop energy resources located far offshore in the South Atlantic. Indeed, no nation has ever advanced such an ambitious plan for long-term comprehensive offshore development. And it’s being bankrolled by China.
Much of Brazil’s South Atlantic development will require drilling wells in waters up to two miles deep, through four-five miles of rock beneath the seabed. The prize at the end will be oil deposits with reserves estimated in the tens of billions of barrels. With access to this offshore bounty, Brazil expects to take its place among the first ranks of energy-producing nations in the world.
Brazil’s state-controlled national oil company (NOC), Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) plans to spend over $175 billion in the next five years just on offshore development. The immense investment involves buying and building dozens of new drill ships and seagoing platforms, along with many dozens more support and servicing vessels. Petrobras will lay thousands of miles of pipelines on the seafloor, connecting massive complexes of subsea equipment that will sit atop hundreds of oil wells.
To finance much of this development, Brazil has turned to China. With the active support of the Chinese government, many Chinese banks are lining up to extend loans to Brazil’s energy sector. Right now, there is an agreement for a Chinese consortium to lend Petrobras $10 billion. In exchange, Petrobras will eventually ship 200,000 barrels of oil per day to Chinese refineries. There are more such long-term finance supply deals in the works.
The Chinese government has established strategic guidelines for its national firms. That is, the Chinese government has set goals for Chinese firms to supply China’s long-term needs for energy and other natural resources. The Chinese are looking well ahead into the rest of this century, and even into the 22nd century. They want to ensure their future access to a diverse global supply chain, as well as win entrée into resource-rich regions of the world for Chinese industries and support firms.
Why are the Chinese receiving such a warm welcome in Brazil? According to Sergio Gabrielli, CEO of Petrobras, “The U.S. has a problem. There isn’t someone in the U.S. government that we can sit down with and have the kinds of discussions we’re having with the Chinese.”
In other words, there is a new geopolitics of oil at work. In the olden days, it would have been large international oil companies (IOCs) like Exxon Mobil, Shell and BP walking into a room to meet with the Brazilians. The IOCs were the only game in town. They controlled the financing and the technology for large developments.
But today, the biggest deals begin with a political understanding at the top, hammered out between the highest levels of the respective governments. This top-down political deal making cuts out the IOCs, except where they have technical expertise that can be hired on a contract basis.
In essence, we are witnessing the end of the post-World War II economic construct of the world’s financial system. That construct always had a Western bias. But the 2008 crash of the Western business and financial model has changed everything. It has left a barren worldwide financial landscape for large development projects. Most traditional Western financing is simply not available for large projects. And as French author Francois Rabelais (1494-1553) once noted, “Nature abhors a vacuum.”
Thus has the Western financial crisis handed well-capitalized, government-backed Chinese banks and industrial firms an unmatched competitive advantage. With the traditional credit markets dry, Chinese banks have transformed into key lenders for the resource developments that will fuel the next generation of humanity. Indeed, for now, the Chinese are the world’s ONLY lenders for large resource development projects. See Brazil, Exhibit 1.
China’s Rare Earths Monopoly — All But Insurmountable
China’s support for Brazilian energy development is not the only angle that the Chinese government is pursuing for its future gain. China’s large reserves of foreign exchange, as well as its national strategic focus, has enabled incomparable — even insurmountable — progress for the Middle Kingdom to corner the world supply of substances called rare earths. Here’s the production chart for the past half century. Obviously, something is going on here.
Now that we’ve seen this chart, the questions arise: What are rare earths? And why are they important?
Rare earths are the 15 elements within the lanthanide series of the periodic table, plus the elements yttrium and scandium. The best known are lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, praseodymium, gadolinium, europium and samarium.
Here’s why rare earths are important. They’re used in a wide range of industrial and electronic applications. For many years, large amounts of lanthanum and cerium have been used in petroleum refining, with the result of increasing yields from each barrel of oil by about 10% while extending the life of other expensive catalysts like platinum. And rare earths find their way into myriad other applications, from aerospace super-alloys to rechargeable cell phone batteries.
More recently, large volumes of rare earths (especially neodymium) have gone into magnets. In fact, rare earths are a key component in strong, permanent magnets. It’s not those cute little refrigerator magnets; your computer contains a number of tiny magnets in its hard drive. If there are no permanent magnets, there are no computers. Or DVDs or DVRs or iPods, etc. Say farewell to your wired way of life.
And then there are the giant 1-ton magnets used in large windmill assemblies. Each windmill magnet is about the size of a car engine and uses 560 pounds of neodymium. The implication is that if the U.S. wants to erect windmills to generate electricity, the nation is making a long-term commitment to buy and use unprecedented amounts of neodymium. And there are NO substitutes. For just this one “clean energy” application, large amounts of rare earths — and the ores and mines to produce them — are essential.
There are many other clean-energy applications for rare earths as well, particularly in the now forming electric car industry. Neodymium magnets are key components in electric motors and regenerative braking systems used in hybrid vehicles. Without these magnets, no electric cars will ever roll off an assembly line, let alone whiz down an American highway.
Another significant demand for rare earths will come from large rechargeable batteries for electric cars. Nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) rechargeable batteries, for example, contain cerium and lanthanum in a form called “mischmetal.” And right now, NiMH batteries are the battery of choice for many hybrid vehicles. Overall, a typical hybrid electric vehicle can use about 50 pounds of rare earths — between the rechargeable battery pack, the permanent magnet motor and regenerative braking system. (Plus other tiny magnets for the sound system, power windows, power seats, windshield wipers, etc.)
So clearly, demand for rare earths is set to skyrocket. Just clean energy applications will drive unheralded demand for metals of which most investors — let alone consumers — have never heard.
It’s also important to keep in mind that almost none of the rare earths used in large power systems (like windmills) or electric vehicles (such as with NiMH batteries) are currently being recycled. The long lifetimes of the magnets and batteries, coupled with the lack of recycling technologies and dedicated facilities, means that any increase in supply can only come from new mining.
Another factor is that there appears to be an official Chinese policy to slow down export of rare earths. Chinese exports have decreased by 8% or so each of the past three years. Chinese suppliers have placed foreign customers on allocation, at reduced quantities from years past. The Chinese explain that they have closed mines for environmental reasons. Yet the Chinese also promise adequate supplies of rare earths if foreign users will move their industrial facilities into China.
According to Yoichi Sato, head of the Rare Earths Department of Japan’s Mitsui Industries, China is displaying its long-term strategy toward these critical elements. Mr. Sato believes that China is playing a complex game with the world’s rare earth consumers.
First, China is restricting rare earths exports, to provide its own high-tech industries with the chance to flourish and gain a competitive edge over rivals in Asia, Europe and the U.S. And second, it will force many foreign firms to move their high-tech factories and research centers to China to circumvent quotas. China, to be sure, has a small army of highly capable scientists and engineers who focus on rare earths applications — over 15,000 Ph.D.-level individuals, by one count.
Mitsui’s Mr. Sato believes that China will use its existing monopoly status in rare earths production to crush any competition that emerges. While about 42% of worldwide rare earths resources are outside China, there are NO non-Chinese sites with any significant processing or refining capacity. In the game of rare earths, China holds almost all of the cards.
Mr. Sato has stated, “Many people are looking at establishing alternative refineries and sources outside China, but the investment is not necessarily a sound one because of the threat of price revenge by China. If new projects emerge, as they have recently in Malaysia and Australia, China could just drop its prices and force rivals out of business.”
And as if on cue, in April 2009, Chinese firms used their financial muscle to buy large stakes in potential foreign rivals in Malaysia and Australia.
I hope that you now understand the importance of rare earths to the 21st-century economy of the West, particularly to the energy future of the U.S. I’m following this situation very closely. There ARE some potential investment opportunities in rare earths, but only in very small, thinly capitalized firms. I’ll share some of these investment ideas with you in future issues of my newsletter Outstanding Investments.
Until we meet again,
Byron King
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