A Really Bad Day for Maliki, the Prime Minister of Iraq

No matter how bad a day you’re having, it’s probably not as bad as the day Nouri al-Maliki is having.

Maliki is the prime minister of Iraq. He wants very much to remain prime minister of Iraq, but he’s having trouble forming a coalition that can make up a majority of parliament. He’s been trying ever since indecisive elections last March -- seven months ago -- a world record, the BBC reckons.

You knew the job was dangerous when you took it…

On a visit to Tehran today, Maliki was told he must “get rid of America” and the 50,000 remaining U.S. troops in his country. So said Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

He’s the real power in Iran, in contrast to the blowhard president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who grabs all the headlines but doesn’t even command the military.

Maliki will take this seriously. For one thing, he lived in exile in Iran during Saddam Hussein’s rule. On the other hand, he’s well aware he wouldn’t be prime minister now if the United States had never invaded Iraq. It’s hard to serve two masters.

Now he has to make a choice. Two weeks ago, Iran convinced another faction in Iraq to back Maliki’s bid to remain prime minister. It happens that Washington insists this faction be kept out of the coalition because it insists on the departure of U.S. troops.

Maliki’s 4½-year balancing act between the United States and Iran is coming to a head. This is the choice he now faces…

Side with Iran and form a viable governing coalition
Side with the United States and allow a seven-month crisis to drag into perpetuity, undermining his legitimacy among ordinary Iraqis
No. 1 seems like a slam-dunk. It’s an outcome Washington won’t like but nonetheless can live with. The Bush administration already negotiated an agreement under which all the U.S. troops are gone by the end of next year. That gives the current administration political cover.

Still, come the end of next year, we can just imagine the cries: “Who lost Iraq?” That is, how did the U.S. invasion manage to strengthen Iran’s hand in the Middle East?

We won’t wade into that political thicket. We’ll just note that Iran sees itself as a sort of godfather to all Shia Muslims. And now they’re allied with an oil-rich country next door where 60% of the population is Shia.

“Iran's Shia influence,” says Byron King, “has spilled across the border into southern Iraq. Southern Iraq is where you'll find six of Iraq's eight ‘supergiant’ oil fields. It's also where you'll find a key border with Shia Islam's mortal enemy -- Saudi Arabia.”

If that sounds like a recipe for conflict, you’re right. It could easily push oil to $125 a barrel… and, if it really spirals out of control, $200 or more. Byron paints an all-too-believable scenario in a fully revised and updated version of his presentation on the subject. He also shows you how to safeguard your investments when the day comes.

Regards,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

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