by Chris Mayer of the Daily Reckoning
In 1972, Russia's wheat crop failed. Russia had to dip into the global grain markets to meet demand. Before Washington knew the plight of its Cold War adversary, Russia bought up all of the surplus wheat in the US. Dubbed "The Great Grain Robbery," Russia's purchases sent grain prices soaring around the world.
Grain prices soon hit 125-year highs in Chicago. In a 10-month span, soybeans went from $3.31 to $12.90 a bushel. Food prices around the world rose 50% in 1973.
Some of the old traders are wondering if it's happening all over again.
On Thursday, wheat prices hit $7.25 a bushel, a 71% increase since the June low. It's the biggest one-month jump in three decades. The last time prices got this high was during the food crisis in 2008. (Wheat prices topped out at $13 then.) You may recall the ensuing food riots across the globe from Haiti to Egypt to Bangladesh.
Russia is again the center of attention. The worst heat wave and drought in a century has baked crops to a crisp in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. These three are among the biggest exporters of wheat in the world. They provide critical food supplies to the largest importing regions in the world - the Middle East and North Africa.
In some areas of Russia, the heat and lack of rain killed half the crop. Withered wheat stalks litter the usually fertile fields along the Volga River. This is one of the world's breadbaskets. Russia and the Ukraine alone were supposed to supply 18% of the world's wheat. Now it looks like Russia's exports could drop to zero.
Originally, forecasts called for 81-85 million metric tons of wheat, rye, barley and other crops. Now the Russian Grain Union says 72-78 million. Skeptics abound on that number, which looks too optimistic. The head of Glencore, the giant grain-trading house, thinks the real number will be closer to 65 million tonnes.
Holy smokes, I hear you say. Yes, it is bad. But it gets worse.
It's so bad that Glencore begged Moscow to ban the export of grain - as it did in the food crisis of 2007-2008. That's because Glencore thinks that trading houses around the world won't be able to fulfill their contracts to deliver grains. When Moscow bans exports, then trading houses can declare force majeure, a clause that allows them to escape these deals. On Thursday afternoon, Russia did just that.
Russia's crop failure comes at a bad time. Most of the world's wheat exporters are having problems. The Aussies battle locusts. The Canadians suffer from too much rain. Even European farmers struggle with drought. The Italians' beloved tomato crop will come up 10-15% short this year. Belgian potato farmers say drought will nick their yields. Polish fruit orchards will be down by a fifth. The French wheat farmers curse the skies as their wheat fields shrivel in the sun. The English sheep farmers, short on hay and grass, have sold their flocks early. Even the Dutch expect 10% fewer tulip bulbs this year.
The market is tightening and there are ripple effects across the globe. Over the weekend, Egypt bought 180,000 metric tons of wheat - its second purchase in two weeks and more than expected. Egypt is the world's largest importer.
One key difference this time around compared to 2007-08 is that inventories are in better shape - at least on paper. But I have to wonder. In India, government officials have let their once-plentiful grain stockpiles rot in the fields. India thinks food is too important to leave to the private sector. The government is in charge of food stockpiles. In a common display of government folly, bureaucrats, apparently, threw thin plastic sheets over these supplies and let them sit in the fields to rot and wash away in the rains.
The savior in all this looks like it will be the US. Stockpiles here should be healthy, at almost 30 million tons.
It seems like only yesterday the market took a cheerful look at the grain markets and said all was well. Global harvests looked like they were going to put in another record. I warned that nothing counts until the crops hit the bin.
Now that record harvest is gone, kaput, in just a month's time.
So what are the effects of all this? Expect ripples across the food chain. Prices for everything will rise. Prices for cocoa, coffee and pork bellies have already gone up. Beer brewers will pay more for barley, as the barley crop will be down by 20%. All flour-related products - breads, biscuits and the like - will be more costly. As The Financial Times reported, "Food executives are also warning about surging prices for feeding and malting barley, which could push higher the retail cost of products from poultry to beer."
How will this go over with the already rattled consumer in a fragile recovery? Many companies seem reluctant to raise prices. As Domino's CEO said, "Consumers are still hurting out there." Many companies hedge their exposure to food commodities, but if these prices continue to climb, it could crimp their bottom lines.
Meanwhile, the fertilizer stocks have rallied. From July 6 lows, PotashCorp (NYSE:POT) shares are up 34% and Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) is up 31%. The logic is simple enough. High grain prices inspire more planting. More planting means more fertilizer use. Already, as we've seen, volumes are snapping back in the fertilizer business. In their last quarterly reports, both Potash and Mosaic doubled their profits from a year ago.
Recent events show you, once again, the challenges in meeting the world's demand for food. The food crisis of 2007-2008 was not a one-off event. It was a warning. And today, we see again how quickly and easily we can get to another food crisis.
Hang onto those fertilizer stocks.
Chris Mayer,
for The Daily Reckoning
Monday, August 9, 2010
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Going Deep: An Interview with President of Chevron Arica & Latin America Exploration and Production Co.
By Byron W. King Pittsburgh, Pennysylvania
Recently, I had a long talk with Ali Moshiri, President of Chevron Africa and Latin America Exploration and Production Company. Mr. Moshiri has been working for Chevron for over 30 years. He’s one busy man, whose responsibilities begin in the southern waters of the Gulf of Mexico and extend to the cold reaches of the southern Atlantic Ocean.
In our talk, Mr. Moshiri and I looked at the future of offshore oil and gas exploration and development. Here’s part of what we discussed...
Byron W. King: Mr. Moshiri, you run a division of Chevron that includes Africa and Latin America. How much oil and gas do you pull out of the ground every day?
Ali Moshiri: For Africa and Latin America, on a gross basis, Chevron is producing somewhere around 840,000 barrels per day.
BWK: That’s about 1% of all the oil that the world uses every day, at 85 million barrels per day. Can you say some more about what’s happening in the areas with which you deal?
AM: (My area is ) the Atlantic Basin... If you look down at the southern part of the Americas and Africa, people are ignoring the contribution it’s making worldwide.
The basins in this area are different. It’s not necessarily like the Middle East, that they are huge fields. But there are many accumulations. On the aggregate, they’re significant. Not only to the Chevron portfolio, but overall to the supply of oil to the market.
If you look at this area, they’ll always be a net exporter. They’ll always produce more than they can consume. My personal view is that if they continue their level of economic growth, that they assume is going to be above global, they’ll still be an exporter.
It creates an environment for industry to include them as part of the energy equation. The barrels can move to other locations where they don’t have that balance.
BWK: Are you only looking for oil? What’s the larger hydrocarbon picture?
AM: The (Atlantic) basins have similarity, but at the same time the basins have both oil and gas. It’s not just oil. At the moment, the focus has been tremendously towards oil. I believe that both basins in West Africa as well as in Latin America have tremendous potential for gas for the future. But because of lack of infrastructure, they haven’t got to the point similar to Asia Pacific of the Middle East yet.
But if you look ahead 15 years, they’ll get to the point of contributing natural gas, through LNG (liquefied natural gas) or pipeline... That’s the next phase. Today it’s very much focused on the oil side.
BWK: In the Middle East, you’re looking at a mature, 60-70 year old concept of exploration. Also, culturally, you’ve got similarities of climate, ethnicity to some extent, religion too. Not that everybody’s the same. But by comparison, if you’re moving from the Caribbean Basin to West Africa to Brazil to Angola, you’re going to see a lot of different people and different governments and different cultures that you’re going to have to work with. Can you comment?
AM: Absolutely. If you look at the Chevron operations, we deal with ten different countries. Three of them are in OPEC. Two of them are observers in OPEC. Therefore five of them are very much within the framework of the OPEC community. That shows that each of them have (their) oil policy and different view compared to when you look at places like the US, Australia, UK and Europe.
For that matter, you have to deal with each country separately. You have to understand, first of all, the geology, the technical aspects of it. And also the policies. The policies vary.
I’m not saying it’s good or bad, whether it’s in the hands of the government or the private sector. That’s what we deal with in this area. Not only do we have to worry about the technical side, but also about the fiscal, commercial aspects of it as well.
BWK: Can you comment about what you’ve seen over the past 20 years, with the rise of the national oil companies (NOCs) in these regions, and how you’ve had to adapt from the way you used to do business to the way you have to do business now in the NOC environment?
AM: The reality is that with the truly conventional aspects of oil and gas, the technology is there. The know-how is there. Whether or not we have it, or a service company has it. It’s there. So the view of the NOC is that they have more than one option on just the conventional (development).
For example, (what) if you discover an oil field on land, say light oil? Then building it, developing it, putting it into the market is relatively conventional. So what we would focus on is increasing the recovery factor. We focus on getting more out of the ground.
The next phase is what I’d say depends on technology. You get into deepwater. The technology is different. The incremental cost is significant. Room for efficiency becomes a greater part of how we develop things. Yes, everybody (says that they) can develop deepwater. But how do you manage expensive wells that you’ve got to drill? How do you test the basin? How do you commit to the investment? Those are significant.
As you see in the market today, it’s almost becoming like there are a lot of people who can explore. But there are not a lot of people who can develop deep water.
BWK: I had a chance to visit a Chevron operation in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in March. Chevron had the Transocean vessel, Discoverer Inspiration, drilling in over 6,700 feet of water, about 200 miles off the Louisiana coastline. The target depth was over 30,000 feet. It was quite an operation.
AM: I’m glad you took a visit to some of our operations. (You should see) some of the other remote places like offshore, deepwater off Nigeria. You can see how those places are highly technically driven.
And for as much as we’ve gone so far into developing these (deepwater) fields, the technology is not there to work over the wells when there are problems. The technology is not there to create efficiency for working over some of these wells. For example, if a well goes off production in West Africa, and it’s in the swamp, or in Block Zero, off Angola, in shallow water, we move a rig in and we know how to work over the well.
But if a well goes off production and it comes to a work-over, if it’s in deepwater, in say 8,000 feet of water, then you almost have to spend as much to work over a well as you spent to drill the well. Therefore, we are looking for the technology, and expanding our expertise, how to go back and do some of that work. To work those kinds of wells over.
BWK: Can you describe how Chevron’s relationships are changing over time, with the NOCs?
AM: Yes, our relationship with the NOCs is changing, moving to a different direction. The next phase goes several years down the road and gets into the non-conventional hydrocarbons. Like tight sands and shale gas. I always use the US as the base, where we started.
I’ve been in this business 32 years with Chevron. I remember when 500 feet of water was deep water. But now 500 feet of water is a conventional development, or work-over, with high recovery factor. And I think we need to expand that one all the way.
In some of the other regions, especially my region, we are not to that point yet. Again, it’s because some of these basins have not matured yet.
BWK: Can you elaborate on that concept of maturity? How are things different between, say the US and further south in the Atlantic Basin?
AM: (The US) Gulf of Mexico shelf is mature. But if you look at it south, from Mexico down to Argentina, or West Africa or sub Sahara or East Africa, we are still at the first phase of understanding the basins, understanding the potential, developing the technology around it, and being able to transport it.
Some of the discoveries (that) some of the companies have, in sub Sahara Africa, the transportation is going to be the issue. That region is going through a different phase. The transportation is about one phase behind where we are in the US.
According to Chevron’s Mr. Moshiri, there’s great potential for future energy development in the Atlantic Basin. The hydrocarbon resource is there – both oil and natural gas – and development is at an early stage.
The future will see more exploration and development, moving from oil into gas. The local markets will doubtless expand, but there’s still quite a bit available for export. But to accomplish this, the transportation infrastructure needs to expand. In short, there’s much left to accomplish in an immense swath of the world.
The Future Challenge of Energy Development
There are great opportunities for future exploration and energy development in Latin America and Africa. This will require trillions of dollars of capital over many years. That, plus world-class technology, superb and skilled people, as well as close coordination between developers and the national host governments.
Chevron, the subject of this article, is one of the world’s best independent oil companies. From its roots in the California oil patch of more than a century past, Chevron has a solid record of successful exploration and development. Chevron has great financial strength, and a deep pool of technical competence. Chevron’s success – certainly in deepwater development – is built upon its highly skilled and talented people such as Mr. Moshiri and the many members of his extensive team.
That said, there are many other companies working on deepwater oil exploration and development projects across the world. They range from very big to not very big, from independent to nationally-owned and operated.
If you’re interested in learning about another aspect of deepwater development, I can tell you about a small, Canadian company that is developing a remarkable play in offshore Africa. To access my full presentation, just click here.
Until we meet again,
Byron W. King
for The Daily Reckoning
Recently, I had a long talk with Ali Moshiri, President of Chevron Africa and Latin America Exploration and Production Company. Mr. Moshiri has been working for Chevron for over 30 years. He’s one busy man, whose responsibilities begin in the southern waters of the Gulf of Mexico and extend to the cold reaches of the southern Atlantic Ocean.
In our talk, Mr. Moshiri and I looked at the future of offshore oil and gas exploration and development. Here’s part of what we discussed...
Byron W. King: Mr. Moshiri, you run a division of Chevron that includes Africa and Latin America. How much oil and gas do you pull out of the ground every day?
Ali Moshiri: For Africa and Latin America, on a gross basis, Chevron is producing somewhere around 840,000 barrels per day.
BWK: That’s about 1% of all the oil that the world uses every day, at 85 million barrels per day. Can you say some more about what’s happening in the areas with which you deal?
AM: (My area is ) the Atlantic Basin... If you look down at the southern part of the Americas and Africa, people are ignoring the contribution it’s making worldwide.
The basins in this area are different. It’s not necessarily like the Middle East, that they are huge fields. But there are many accumulations. On the aggregate, they’re significant. Not only to the Chevron portfolio, but overall to the supply of oil to the market.
If you look at this area, they’ll always be a net exporter. They’ll always produce more than they can consume. My personal view is that if they continue their level of economic growth, that they assume is going to be above global, they’ll still be an exporter.
It creates an environment for industry to include them as part of the energy equation. The barrels can move to other locations where they don’t have that balance.
BWK: Are you only looking for oil? What’s the larger hydrocarbon picture?
AM: The (Atlantic) basins have similarity, but at the same time the basins have both oil and gas. It’s not just oil. At the moment, the focus has been tremendously towards oil. I believe that both basins in West Africa as well as in Latin America have tremendous potential for gas for the future. But because of lack of infrastructure, they haven’t got to the point similar to Asia Pacific of the Middle East yet.
But if you look ahead 15 years, they’ll get to the point of contributing natural gas, through LNG (liquefied natural gas) or pipeline... That’s the next phase. Today it’s very much focused on the oil side.
BWK: In the Middle East, you’re looking at a mature, 60-70 year old concept of exploration. Also, culturally, you’ve got similarities of climate, ethnicity to some extent, religion too. Not that everybody’s the same. But by comparison, if you’re moving from the Caribbean Basin to West Africa to Brazil to Angola, you’re going to see a lot of different people and different governments and different cultures that you’re going to have to work with. Can you comment?
AM: Absolutely. If you look at the Chevron operations, we deal with ten different countries. Three of them are in OPEC. Two of them are observers in OPEC. Therefore five of them are very much within the framework of the OPEC community. That shows that each of them have (their) oil policy and different view compared to when you look at places like the US, Australia, UK and Europe.
For that matter, you have to deal with each country separately. You have to understand, first of all, the geology, the technical aspects of it. And also the policies. The policies vary.
I’m not saying it’s good or bad, whether it’s in the hands of the government or the private sector. That’s what we deal with in this area. Not only do we have to worry about the technical side, but also about the fiscal, commercial aspects of it as well.
BWK: Can you comment about what you’ve seen over the past 20 years, with the rise of the national oil companies (NOCs) in these regions, and how you’ve had to adapt from the way you used to do business to the way you have to do business now in the NOC environment?
AM: The reality is that with the truly conventional aspects of oil and gas, the technology is there. The know-how is there. Whether or not we have it, or a service company has it. It’s there. So the view of the NOC is that they have more than one option on just the conventional (development).
For example, (what) if you discover an oil field on land, say light oil? Then building it, developing it, putting it into the market is relatively conventional. So what we would focus on is increasing the recovery factor. We focus on getting more out of the ground.
The next phase is what I’d say depends on technology. You get into deepwater. The technology is different. The incremental cost is significant. Room for efficiency becomes a greater part of how we develop things. Yes, everybody (says that they) can develop deepwater. But how do you manage expensive wells that you’ve got to drill? How do you test the basin? How do you commit to the investment? Those are significant.
As you see in the market today, it’s almost becoming like there are a lot of people who can explore. But there are not a lot of people who can develop deep water.
BWK: I had a chance to visit a Chevron operation in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in March. Chevron had the Transocean vessel, Discoverer Inspiration, drilling in over 6,700 feet of water, about 200 miles off the Louisiana coastline. The target depth was over 30,000 feet. It was quite an operation.
AM: I’m glad you took a visit to some of our operations. (You should see) some of the other remote places like offshore, deepwater off Nigeria. You can see how those places are highly technically driven.
And for as much as we’ve gone so far into developing these (deepwater) fields, the technology is not there to work over the wells when there are problems. The technology is not there to create efficiency for working over some of these wells. For example, if a well goes off production in West Africa, and it’s in the swamp, or in Block Zero, off Angola, in shallow water, we move a rig in and we know how to work over the well.
But if a well goes off production and it comes to a work-over, if it’s in deepwater, in say 8,000 feet of water, then you almost have to spend as much to work over a well as you spent to drill the well. Therefore, we are looking for the technology, and expanding our expertise, how to go back and do some of that work. To work those kinds of wells over.
BWK: Can you describe how Chevron’s relationships are changing over time, with the NOCs?
AM: Yes, our relationship with the NOCs is changing, moving to a different direction. The next phase goes several years down the road and gets into the non-conventional hydrocarbons. Like tight sands and shale gas. I always use the US as the base, where we started.
I’ve been in this business 32 years with Chevron. I remember when 500 feet of water was deep water. But now 500 feet of water is a conventional development, or work-over, with high recovery factor. And I think we need to expand that one all the way.
In some of the other regions, especially my region, we are not to that point yet. Again, it’s because some of these basins have not matured yet.
BWK: Can you elaborate on that concept of maturity? How are things different between, say the US and further south in the Atlantic Basin?
AM: (The US) Gulf of Mexico shelf is mature. But if you look at it south, from Mexico down to Argentina, or West Africa or sub Sahara or East Africa, we are still at the first phase of understanding the basins, understanding the potential, developing the technology around it, and being able to transport it.
Some of the discoveries (that) some of the companies have, in sub Sahara Africa, the transportation is going to be the issue. That region is going through a different phase. The transportation is about one phase behind where we are in the US.
According to Chevron’s Mr. Moshiri, there’s great potential for future energy development in the Atlantic Basin. The hydrocarbon resource is there – both oil and natural gas – and development is at an early stage.
The future will see more exploration and development, moving from oil into gas. The local markets will doubtless expand, but there’s still quite a bit available for export. But to accomplish this, the transportation infrastructure needs to expand. In short, there’s much left to accomplish in an immense swath of the world.
The Future Challenge of Energy Development
There are great opportunities for future exploration and energy development in Latin America and Africa. This will require trillions of dollars of capital over many years. That, plus world-class technology, superb and skilled people, as well as close coordination between developers and the national host governments.
Chevron, the subject of this article, is one of the world’s best independent oil companies. From its roots in the California oil patch of more than a century past, Chevron has a solid record of successful exploration and development. Chevron has great financial strength, and a deep pool of technical competence. Chevron’s success – certainly in deepwater development – is built upon its highly skilled and talented people such as Mr. Moshiri and the many members of his extensive team.
That said, there are many other companies working on deepwater oil exploration and development projects across the world. They range from very big to not very big, from independent to nationally-owned and operated.
If you’re interested in learning about another aspect of deepwater development, I can tell you about a small, Canadian company that is developing a remarkable play in offshore Africa. To access my full presentation, just click here.
Until we meet again,
Byron W. King
for The Daily Reckoning
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
According to the feds, 74% of all the oil leaked into the Gulf has already been removed.
Despite headlines screaming “the worst oil spill in history,” it turns out the BP blowout disaster wasn’t really as big a deal as you’d have thought.
Oh, well… sorry.
According to the feds, 74% of all the oil leaked into the Gulf has already been removed. “Much of the rest,” The New York Times summarizes a government report released today, “is so diluted that it does not seem to pose much additional risk of harm.”
Nearly half -- 41% -- of the oil simply “evaporated, dissolved or dispersed” -- taken care of by Mother Nature herself. That’s a larger share of spill containment than all of BP’s burning, skimming, recovery, dispersing and plugging efforts… combined.
The report estimates about a million barrels of crude oil remains floating in the Gulf.
“Of course, it's not good to blow out your oil wells,” Byron King explains. “But we can be thankful that nature has oil-eating bacteria out there. Add oil to the seawater, with heat from the sun, and sunlight, and stir it up with wind and wave and you see that the oil is going away faster than many people expected.
“In a normal environment, oil-eating bacteria are in equilibrium with their surroundings. If there's not much oil in the water, the bacteria are few and far between. But if you add oil to the mix, the bacteria bloom.
“As the bloom progresses, more bacteria eat more and more of the oil. They eat the oil until it's mostly gone. When the ‘oil food’ is gone, the bacteria die off. The result is much less oil, and much more microscopic biomass in the water.”
Cheers,
Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. Small question: If so many people hate this new video format, why is it grabbing so much attention?
Thank you for reading The 5 Min. Forecast! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to 5minforecast@agorafinancial.com
Oh, well… sorry.
According to the feds, 74% of all the oil leaked into the Gulf has already been removed. “Much of the rest,” The New York Times summarizes a government report released today, “is so diluted that it does not seem to pose much additional risk of harm.”
Nearly half -- 41% -- of the oil simply “evaporated, dissolved or dispersed” -- taken care of by Mother Nature herself. That’s a larger share of spill containment than all of BP’s burning, skimming, recovery, dispersing and plugging efforts… combined.
The report estimates about a million barrels of crude oil remains floating in the Gulf.
“Of course, it's not good to blow out your oil wells,” Byron King explains. “But we can be thankful that nature has oil-eating bacteria out there. Add oil to the seawater, with heat from the sun, and sunlight, and stir it up with wind and wave and you see that the oil is going away faster than many people expected.
“In a normal environment, oil-eating bacteria are in equilibrium with their surroundings. If there's not much oil in the water, the bacteria are few and far between. But if you add oil to the mix, the bacteria bloom.
“As the bloom progresses, more bacteria eat more and more of the oil. They eat the oil until it's mostly gone. When the ‘oil food’ is gone, the bacteria die off. The result is much less oil, and much more microscopic biomass in the water.”
Cheers,
Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. Small question: If so many people hate this new video format, why is it grabbing so much attention?
Thank you for reading The 5 Min. Forecast! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to 5minforecast@agorafinancial.com
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Abandoning the Capped Oil Well: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
Thursday, July 22, 2010
FROM: http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/07/abandoning-capped-oil-well-what-could.html
BP will leave the cap on the oil well while it vacates the area for a number of days to avoid the coming tropical storm.
What could possibly go wrong?
One expert warns that increasing pressure might have an unintended danger:
Bill Gale, a California engineer and industrial explosion expert who is a member of the Deepwater Horizon Study Group, said… that gas hydrate crystals could be plugging any holes in the underground portion of the well, and they could get dislodged as pressure builds.
(Gale was formerly Chief Loss Prevention Engineer for Bechtel in San Francisco, obtained his undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering, Masters in Civil Engineering and PhD in Fire Safety Engineering Science from the University of California, Berkeley. Gale is a registered professional engineer in both mechanical engineering and fire protection engineering, and has more than forty years of industrial loss prevention, process safety management, and fire protection/fire safety engineering experience.)
In other words, there may have been a destruction of a portion of the steel well casing which was temporarily plugged by methane hydrate crystals. Leaving the well cap may slowly raise the pressure in the well to the point where the hydrate crystals are dislodged, in which case the well might really start leaking.
Indeed, the relationship between methane hydrate, pressure and temperature is well-known:
Sound farfetched? Maybe.
But remember that the "top hat" containment dome failed because it got plugged up with methane hydrate crystals.
And remember that there's a lot of methane down there. Indeed, while most crude oil contains 5% methane, the crude oil gushing out of the blown out well is 40% methane.
Although even less likely, scientists say that the methane could disturb the seafloor itself. As the St. Peterburg Times points out:
Disturbing those [methane hydrate] deposits — say, by drilling an oil well through them — can turn that solid methane into a liquid, leaving the ocean floor unstable, explained [Carol Lutken of the University of Mississippi, which is part of a consortium with SRI which has been conducting methane research in the Gulf of Mexico for years].
***
Generally the oil industry tries to avoid methane areas during drilling for safety reasons. But the U.S. Energy Department wants to find a way to harvest fuel from those methane deposits, Lutken said. [I've previously discussed that issue in detail.]
So what's the bottom line?
I am not predicting that anything bad will happen. Hopefully, when the storm is over and the underwater ROV submersibles return to the spill site, everything will be peaceful and stable.
But there are many variables such as methane hydrates which - in a worst-case scenario - could complicate matters.
W said...
Suppose for a moment that the well is actually leaking.
The oil and gas is finding its way into pathways that it cut through the compromised well bore, and over time, it slowly hollows out a space as the fluid flows.
The flow into the other geological structures get larger and larger, and those, may (who knows) in turn, seep.
From this logic, seeps can happen miles (many) away that are really from pressure in this reservoir.
The longer the pressure is on, the more likely that if there are other pathways it will punch its way through it.
It can end up creating a much bigger problem.
July 22, 2010 4:17 PM
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FROM: http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2010/07/abandoning-capped-oil-well-what-could.html
BP will leave the cap on the oil well while it vacates the area for a number of days to avoid the coming tropical storm.
What could possibly go wrong?
One expert warns that increasing pressure might have an unintended danger:
Bill Gale, a California engineer and industrial explosion expert who is a member of the Deepwater Horizon Study Group, said… that gas hydrate crystals could be plugging any holes in the underground portion of the well, and they could get dislodged as pressure builds.
(Gale was formerly Chief Loss Prevention Engineer for Bechtel in San Francisco, obtained his undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering, Masters in Civil Engineering and PhD in Fire Safety Engineering Science from the University of California, Berkeley. Gale is a registered professional engineer in both mechanical engineering and fire protection engineering, and has more than forty years of industrial loss prevention, process safety management, and fire protection/fire safety engineering experience.)
In other words, there may have been a destruction of a portion of the steel well casing which was temporarily plugged by methane hydrate crystals. Leaving the well cap may slowly raise the pressure in the well to the point where the hydrate crystals are dislodged, in which case the well might really start leaking.
Indeed, the relationship between methane hydrate, pressure and temperature is well-known:
Sound farfetched? Maybe.
But remember that the "top hat" containment dome failed because it got plugged up with methane hydrate crystals.
And remember that there's a lot of methane down there. Indeed, while most crude oil contains 5% methane, the crude oil gushing out of the blown out well is 40% methane.
Although even less likely, scientists say that the methane could disturb the seafloor itself. As the St. Peterburg Times points out:
Disturbing those [methane hydrate] deposits — say, by drilling an oil well through them — can turn that solid methane into a liquid, leaving the ocean floor unstable, explained [Carol Lutken of the University of Mississippi, which is part of a consortium with SRI which has been conducting methane research in the Gulf of Mexico for years].
***
Generally the oil industry tries to avoid methane areas during drilling for safety reasons. But the U.S. Energy Department wants to find a way to harvest fuel from those methane deposits, Lutken said. [I've previously discussed that issue in detail.]
So what's the bottom line?
I am not predicting that anything bad will happen. Hopefully, when the storm is over and the underwater ROV submersibles return to the spill site, everything will be peaceful and stable.
But there are many variables such as methane hydrates which - in a worst-case scenario - could complicate matters.
W said...
Suppose for a moment that the well is actually leaking.
The oil and gas is finding its way into pathways that it cut through the compromised well bore, and over time, it slowly hollows out a space as the fluid flows.
The flow into the other geological structures get larger and larger, and those, may (who knows) in turn, seep.
From this logic, seeps can happen miles (many) away that are really from pressure in this reservoir.
The longer the pressure is on, the more likely that if there are other pathways it will punch its way through it.
It can end up creating a much bigger problem.
July 22, 2010 4:17 PM
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Monday, July 19, 2010
So You Thought Coal Was Dirty? Coal or Deep Water Drilling anyone ?
Bob Irish Reporting: Delray Beach,FL Monday July 19, 2010
Dear IDE Reader:
Our energy world will never be the same again, thanks to BP. But in re-examining our energy priorities, one sector remains ignored and all-but forgotten. And no way that should be the case, says our own Laura Rodini, IDE’s Chief Operating Officer. For the surprising lesson of BP’s Gulf Disaster, read below.
It’s been 90 days since the BP oil spill began in the Gulf of Mexico, and while BP managed to place a cap on top of the spewing oil late last week, there is no guarantee that the spill is contained.
There’s been a depressing amount of oil spilled - 9 times more oil than the Exxon Valdez, and growing!
And now with hurricane season underway, containment efforts are in danger.
Right now Congress is investigating whether deepwater drilling really is a safe means of oil production.
Which leads us to Andy Gordon’s very interesting pick in this month’s Sound Profits newsletter. You might call this a ‘contrarian pick.’
It’s a substance people normally think is dirtier than oil.
But in light of all that’s going on in the Gulf, I’d say it’s time to think again!
Coal Mythbuster: It’s Not Dirty
Coal is the most misunderstood and underrated of all the energy sectors. Since the 70s, we have tripled our consumption of coal. It provides half the electricity we use.
Yet, everybody discounts coal while championing their favorite pie-in-the-sky alternative...
Obama doesn’t get it. He’s using the BP crisis to push one of his pet projects – the development of solar and wind energy sources – into the forefront of technology development.
The World Bank doesn’t get it either. They’re also pushing so-called clean energy on developing countries.
And most investors don’t get it. They’re getting into other oil majors like Exxon Mobil and Chevron instead of investing in coal.
What these folks fail to understand is that coal is not dirty. The amount of emissions released into the atmosphere has actually shrunk by 40%.
That’s because today’s power plants emit far less pollutants (nasty stuff like SO2, NOX, Particulates, mercury) than the plants from the ‘70s, according to the National Energy Technology Laboratory.
And “scrubbers” installed in older power plants get rid of 99% of the pollutants that used to escape through their chimney stacks. In 2005, 22% of coal-fired capacity east of the Mississippi had these scrubbers. By the end of this year, over 50% of capacity is expected to be scrubbed.
That’s 90.6 gigawatts of coal-fired generation that will be retrofitted with new scrubbers by the end of 2011, according to the EIA.
The other good thing about coal is that we simply have a lot of it lying around....about 262 billion tons, according to the Energy Information Agency.
It accounts for 94% of all our fossil energy reserves – there’s more coal than oil in the U.S. And there’s enough coal in the world to last us another 235 years.
Add in the fact that coal is cheap to use. It’s the number-one fuel of China for a reason, you know.
It’s also hard to replace. Every man, woman and child in the U.S. consumes 3.8 tons of coal per year. That is the equivalent of 17,593 Big Macs.
Another way of looking at this is that the U.S. would have to build 250 nuclear reactors...or produce 17 more trillion cubic feet...or build 500 more damns the size of the gigantic Hoover Dam to replace the coal we use.
How are you going to come close to replacing that? The answer of course is you can’t.
In this month’s Sound Profits issue, Andy recommends one company that’s primed to ride coal’s under-the-radar comeback for major gains. As a Master Limited Partnership, it doesn’t have to pay taxes on its profits. Because it’s allowed to pass on the bulk of its income to shareholders, it sports a juicy 6.6% dividend!
As demand from China and India continue to rise (and maybe the US too, once it sees the light on dangerous offshore oil rigs), this company is primed to shine. In fact, Andy is projecting 80% gains in under two years!
Andy says that coal is not the “bridge to the future” as the so-called energy specialists claim it is. Coal is the future.
For all of the details – including Andy’s Buy Under price - sign up for the Sound Profits newsletter today. You can read all of the details about Sound Profits here.
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Copyright © 2010 by Fourth Avenue Financial. All rights reserved. The Fourth Avenue Financial unites the stock-picking talents of several analysts and editors. Each of the services is based on individual trading/investment philosophies or vehicles and specific investment approaches.
Fourth Avenue Financials Investor's Daily Edge is intended specifically for mature investors with a strong sense of individual responsibility who want to arbitrage different viewpoints to optimize their personal investment strategy. We reserve the right to remove readers we believe do not meet these criteria from our distribution list without prior notice.
You are welcome to distribute this message, at your discretion, to others who you believe share the values of the Fourth Avenue Financial.
NOTE TO OUR READERS: Fourth Avenue Financial or Early To Rise does not act as an investment advisor or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. Investments recommended in this publication should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company in question.
Fourth Avenue Financial expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security that they recommend to their readers. Furthermore, all other employees and agents of Fourth Avenue Financial and its affiliate companies must wait 24 hours before following an initial recommendation published on the Internet, or 72 hours after a printed publication is mailed.
Email: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com | phone 800.718.2891
We respect your privacy. You can view our privacy policy here.
© Copyright Early to Rise, LLC., 2010
Dear IDE Reader:
Our energy world will never be the same again, thanks to BP. But in re-examining our energy priorities, one sector remains ignored and all-but forgotten. And no way that should be the case, says our own Laura Rodini, IDE’s Chief Operating Officer. For the surprising lesson of BP’s Gulf Disaster, read below.
It’s been 90 days since the BP oil spill began in the Gulf of Mexico, and while BP managed to place a cap on top of the spewing oil late last week, there is no guarantee that the spill is contained.
There’s been a depressing amount of oil spilled - 9 times more oil than the Exxon Valdez, and growing!
And now with hurricane season underway, containment efforts are in danger.
Right now Congress is investigating whether deepwater drilling really is a safe means of oil production.
Which leads us to Andy Gordon’s very interesting pick in this month’s Sound Profits newsletter. You might call this a ‘contrarian pick.’
It’s a substance people normally think is dirtier than oil.
But in light of all that’s going on in the Gulf, I’d say it’s time to think again!
Coal Mythbuster: It’s Not Dirty
Coal is the most misunderstood and underrated of all the energy sectors. Since the 70s, we have tripled our consumption of coal. It provides half the electricity we use.
Yet, everybody discounts coal while championing their favorite pie-in-the-sky alternative...
Obama doesn’t get it. He’s using the BP crisis to push one of his pet projects – the development of solar and wind energy sources – into the forefront of technology development.
The World Bank doesn’t get it either. They’re also pushing so-called clean energy on developing countries.
And most investors don’t get it. They’re getting into other oil majors like Exxon Mobil and Chevron instead of investing in coal.
What these folks fail to understand is that coal is not dirty. The amount of emissions released into the atmosphere has actually shrunk by 40%.
That’s because today’s power plants emit far less pollutants (nasty stuff like SO2, NOX, Particulates, mercury) than the plants from the ‘70s, according to the National Energy Technology Laboratory.
And “scrubbers” installed in older power plants get rid of 99% of the pollutants that used to escape through their chimney stacks. In 2005, 22% of coal-fired capacity east of the Mississippi had these scrubbers. By the end of this year, over 50% of capacity is expected to be scrubbed.
That’s 90.6 gigawatts of coal-fired generation that will be retrofitted with new scrubbers by the end of 2011, according to the EIA.
The other good thing about coal is that we simply have a lot of it lying around....about 262 billion tons, according to the Energy Information Agency.
It accounts for 94% of all our fossil energy reserves – there’s more coal than oil in the U.S. And there’s enough coal in the world to last us another 235 years.
Add in the fact that coal is cheap to use. It’s the number-one fuel of China for a reason, you know.
It’s also hard to replace. Every man, woman and child in the U.S. consumes 3.8 tons of coal per year. That is the equivalent of 17,593 Big Macs.
Another way of looking at this is that the U.S. would have to build 250 nuclear reactors...or produce 17 more trillion cubic feet...or build 500 more damns the size of the gigantic Hoover Dam to replace the coal we use.
How are you going to come close to replacing that? The answer of course is you can’t.
In this month’s Sound Profits issue, Andy recommends one company that’s primed to ride coal’s under-the-radar comeback for major gains. As a Master Limited Partnership, it doesn’t have to pay taxes on its profits. Because it’s allowed to pass on the bulk of its income to shareholders, it sports a juicy 6.6% dividend!
As demand from China and India continue to rise (and maybe the US too, once it sees the light on dangerous offshore oil rigs), this company is primed to shine. In fact, Andy is projecting 80% gains in under two years!
Andy says that coal is not the “bridge to the future” as the so-called energy specialists claim it is. Coal is the future.
For all of the details – including Andy’s Buy Under price - sign up for the Sound Profits newsletter today. You can read all of the details about Sound Profits here.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We want your feedback! Let us know your thoughts on this article. Email us at: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com
Market Window
To unsubscribe from Investor's Daily Edge and any associated external offers, Click here
To cancel or for any other subscription issues, write us at:
Investor's Daily Edge
PO Box 7835
Delray Beach, FL 33482
800.718.2891
Copyright © 2010 by Fourth Avenue Financial. All rights reserved. The Fourth Avenue Financial unites the stock-picking talents of several analysts and editors. Each of the services is based on individual trading/investment philosophies or vehicles and specific investment approaches.
Fourth Avenue Financials Investor's Daily Edge is intended specifically for mature investors with a strong sense of individual responsibility who want to arbitrage different viewpoints to optimize their personal investment strategy. We reserve the right to remove readers we believe do not meet these criteria from our distribution list without prior notice.
You are welcome to distribute this message, at your discretion, to others who you believe share the values of the Fourth Avenue Financial.
NOTE TO OUR READERS: Fourth Avenue Financial or Early To Rise does not act as an investment advisor or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. Investments recommended in this publication should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company in question.
Fourth Avenue Financial expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security that they recommend to their readers. Furthermore, all other employees and agents of Fourth Avenue Financial and its affiliate companies must wait 24 hours before following an initial recommendation published on the Internet, or 72 hours after a printed publication is mailed.
Email: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com | phone 800.718.2891
We respect your privacy. You can view our privacy policy here.
© Copyright Early to Rise, LLC., 2010
Government Censorship - Oil Spill in Gulf of Mexico might cause Tsunami !
There is a top secret program with some oil companies and the US government called "Deep Water Drilling" and the well that was being drilled was one of those. Even though it was at least one mile below the sea floor the whole well that was tapped may have been 5- 6 miles deep into the mantel of the Earth and the kind of pressure from that being tapped is something that will destroy attempts to cap the well.
Cassitation is a super-sonic implosion. A bubble may come up and sink every ship and platform within a 50 mile radius. The well has been at 100,000 lbs. per square inch pressure. That is why they have took so long capping the well.
Chris Landowe has written 2 papers about predicting that things like this could happen before it happened. All these wells may crack the ocean floor and have a volcano erupt under water, like Mt. St Helens under water
and then a tsunami would obliterate Florida,basically put it under the ocean.
Cloud of Death followed by Tsunami traveling at 400-600 MPH 1/2
Cassitation is a super-sonic implosion. A bubble may come up and sink every ship and platform within a 50 mile radius. The well has been at 100,000 lbs. per square inch pressure. That is why they have took so long capping the well.
Chris Landowe has written 2 papers about predicting that things like this could happen before it happened. All these wells may crack the ocean floor and have a volcano erupt under water, like Mt. St Helens under water
and then a tsunami would obliterate Florida,basically put it under the ocean.
Cloud of Death followed by Tsunami traveling at 400-600 MPH 1/2
Sunday, July 18, 2010
URGENT - GULF OIL SPILL CAUSING TOXIC RAIN, KILLING CROPS??
I predicted that the oil would rise into the atmosphere and would rain
down on everyone as the winds of the Gulf of Mexico sweep over the southern United States. This seems to confirm what I had predicted to my colleagues at the Dept. of Homeland Security. An EPA official also confirmed that he thought this would happen. I believe the investigators may find lead poisoning to be occurring from the lead in the oil that has risen into the atmosphere around the Gulf.
Here is another video confirming that it is actually raining oil on the streets. British Petroleum may have created the largest environmental
disaster the world has seen since the atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. BP are corporate terrorists. Does that seem harsh? Well,all
they cared about was saving $500,000 for some saftey fixture and now the
Caribbean ,Southern USA and Mexico will bear the consequences of dying crops, animals and eventually people.
URGENT - GULF OIL SPILL CAUSING TOXIC RAIN, KILLING CROPS??
Toxic Oil Spill Rains Warned Could Destroy North America
Corexit 9500 molecules will be able to "phase transition" from their present liquid to a gaseous state allowing them to be absorbed into clouds and allowing their release as "toxic rain" upon all of Eastern North America contaminating water & food supply etc... Excerpt: A dire report prepared for President Medvedev by Russia's Ministry of Natural Resources is warning today that the British Petroleum (BP) oil and gas leak in the Gulf of Mexico is about to become the worst environmental catastrophe in all of human history threatening the entire eastern half of the North American continent with "total destruction". Russian scientists are basing their apocalyptic destruction assessment due to BP's use of millions of gallons of the chemical dispersal agent known as Corexit 9500 which is being pumped directly into the leak of this wellhead over a mile under the Gulf of Mexico waters and designed, this report says, to keep hidden from the American public the full, and tragic, extent of this leak that is now estimated to be over 2.9 million gallons a day. Scientists Warn Gulf Of Mexico Sea Floor Fractured "Beyond Repair" Scientists Warn Gulf Of Mexico Sea Floor Fractured "Beyond Repair" By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers A dire report circulating in the Kremlin today that was prepared for Prime Minister Putin by Anatoly Sagalevich of Russia's Shirshov Institute of Oceanology warns that the Gulf of Mexico sea floor has been fractured "beyond all repair" and our World should begin preparing for an ecological disaster "beyond comprehension" unless "extraordinary measures" are undertaken to stop the massive flow of oil into our Planet's eleventh largest body of water. Most important to note about Sagalevich's warning is that he and his fellow scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences are the only human beings to have actually been to the Gulf of Mexico oil leak site after their being called to the disaster scene by British oil giant BP shortly after the April 22nd sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil platform. BP's calling on Sagalevich after this catastrophe began is due to his being the holder of the World's record for the deepest freshwater dive and his expertise with Russia's two Deep Submergence Vehicles MIR 1 and MIR 2 [photo 2nd left] which are able to take their crews to the depth of 6,000 meters (19,685 ft). According to Sagalevich's report, the oil leaking into the Gulf of Mexico is not just coming from the 22 inch well bore site being shown on American television, but from at least 18 other sites on the "fractured seafloor" with the largest being nearly 11 kilometers (7 miles) from where the Deepwater Horizon sank and is spewing into these precious waters an estimated 2 million gallons of oil a day. Interesting to note in this report is Sagalevich stating that he and the other Russian scientists were required by the United States to sign documents forbidding them to report their findings to either the American public or media, and which they had to do in order to legally operate in US territorial waters. However, Sagalevich says that he and the other scientists gave nearly hourly updates to both US government and BP officials about what they were seeing on the sea floor, including the US Senator from their State of Florida Bill Nelson who after one such briefing stated to the MSNBC news service "Andrea we're looking into something new right now, that there's reports of oil that's seeping up from the seabed... which would indicate, if that's true, that the well casing itself is actually pierced... underneath the seabed. So, you know, the problems could be just enormous with what we're facing." Though not directly stated in Sagalevich's report, Russian scientists findings on the true state of the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster are beyond doubt being leaked to his longtime friend, and former US President George W. Bush's top energy advisor Matthew Simmons, who US media reports state has openly said: "Matthew Simmons is sticking by his story that there's another giant leak in the Gulf of Mexico blowing massive amounts of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. On CNBC's Fast Money, he says he'd be surprised if BP lasted this summer, saying this is disaster is entirely BP's fault."cancelsave
down on everyone as the winds of the Gulf of Mexico sweep over the southern United States. This seems to confirm what I had predicted to my colleagues at the Dept. of Homeland Security. An EPA official also confirmed that he thought this would happen. I believe the investigators may find lead poisoning to be occurring from the lead in the oil that has risen into the atmosphere around the Gulf.
Here is another video confirming that it is actually raining oil on the streets. British Petroleum may have created the largest environmental
disaster the world has seen since the atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. BP are corporate terrorists. Does that seem harsh? Well,all
they cared about was saving $500,000 for some saftey fixture and now the
Caribbean ,Southern USA and Mexico will bear the consequences of dying crops, animals and eventually people.
URGENT - GULF OIL SPILL CAUSING TOXIC RAIN, KILLING CROPS??
Toxic Oil Spill Rains Warned Could Destroy North America
Corexit 9500 molecules will be able to "phase transition" from their present liquid to a gaseous state allowing them to be absorbed into clouds and allowing their release as "toxic rain" upon all of Eastern North America contaminating water & food supply etc... Excerpt: A dire report prepared for President Medvedev by Russia's Ministry of Natural Resources is warning today that the British Petroleum (BP) oil and gas leak in the Gulf of Mexico is about to become the worst environmental catastrophe in all of human history threatening the entire eastern half of the North American continent with "total destruction". Russian scientists are basing their apocalyptic destruction assessment due to BP's use of millions of gallons of the chemical dispersal agent known as Corexit 9500 which is being pumped directly into the leak of this wellhead over a mile under the Gulf of Mexico waters and designed, this report says, to keep hidden from the American public the full, and tragic, extent of this leak that is now estimated to be over 2.9 million gallons a day. Scientists Warn Gulf Of Mexico Sea Floor Fractured "Beyond Repair" Scientists Warn Gulf Of Mexico Sea Floor Fractured "Beyond Repair" By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers A dire report circulating in the Kremlin today that was prepared for Prime Minister Putin by Anatoly Sagalevich of Russia's Shirshov Institute of Oceanology warns that the Gulf of Mexico sea floor has been fractured "beyond all repair" and our World should begin preparing for an ecological disaster "beyond comprehension" unless "extraordinary measures" are undertaken to stop the massive flow of oil into our Planet's eleventh largest body of water. Most important to note about Sagalevich's warning is that he and his fellow scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences are the only human beings to have actually been to the Gulf of Mexico oil leak site after their being called to the disaster scene by British oil giant BP shortly after the April 22nd sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil platform. BP's calling on Sagalevich after this catastrophe began is due to his being the holder of the World's record for the deepest freshwater dive and his expertise with Russia's two Deep Submergence Vehicles MIR 1 and MIR 2 [photo 2nd left] which are able to take their crews to the depth of 6,000 meters (19,685 ft). According to Sagalevich's report, the oil leaking into the Gulf of Mexico is not just coming from the 22 inch well bore site being shown on American television, but from at least 18 other sites on the "fractured seafloor" with the largest being nearly 11 kilometers (7 miles) from where the Deepwater Horizon sank and is spewing into these precious waters an estimated 2 million gallons of oil a day. Interesting to note in this report is Sagalevich stating that he and the other Russian scientists were required by the United States to sign documents forbidding them to report their findings to either the American public or media, and which they had to do in order to legally operate in US territorial waters. However, Sagalevich says that he and the other scientists gave nearly hourly updates to both US government and BP officials about what they were seeing on the sea floor, including the US Senator from their State of Florida Bill Nelson who after one such briefing stated to the MSNBC news service "Andrea we're looking into something new right now, that there's reports of oil that's seeping up from the seabed... which would indicate, if that's true, that the well casing itself is actually pierced... underneath the seabed. So, you know, the problems could be just enormous with what we're facing." Though not directly stated in Sagalevich's report, Russian scientists findings on the true state of the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster are beyond doubt being leaked to his longtime friend, and former US President George W. Bush's top energy advisor Matthew Simmons, who US media reports state has openly said: "Matthew Simmons is sticking by his story that there's another giant leak in the Gulf of Mexico blowing massive amounts of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. On CNBC's Fast Money, he says he'd be surprised if BP lasted this summer, saying this is disaster is entirely BP's fault."cancelsave
Water Samples Prove Toxic, Sample EXPLODES! Must Watch !!!
When Water Samples were tested, the samples came back with 16 to 221 Parts per million from Orange Beach, LA.
Dolphin Island Marine Water Sample EXPLODES !!!
Dolphin Island Marine Water Sample EXPLODES !!!
Monday, July 5, 2010
Kevin Costner's Oil-Water separation machines to be deployed by British Petroleum
Jay Vise Reporting
BP has given the green light for funding of a device that can separate oil from water.
Development of the machine, which uses a centrifuge to separate the fluids, has been backed by actor Kevin Costner to the tune of $25 million.
John Houghtaling, Costner's chief partner in the project, told WWL First News that the oil company has ordered 32 of the devices for use in the Gulf of Mexico.
"In a matter of weeks, we can be manufacturing ten of these a week," Houghtaling said. "So we're hoping by the first of August to have all 32 of these things in the Gulf."
Listen to Houtaling talk about the deployment of the device:
According to Houtaling, the machines cost roughly half a million dollars to build, but also require the hiring of vessels to take them out onto the water.
Though the world-famous actor and Houtaling are both pleased that BP has now agreed to deploy the devices, Costner told members of Congress earlier this week. that he'd had a hard time getting an opportunity to try out his centrifuge for the Coast Guard.
"We would offer to take our machines out there but we couldn't get onto the spots because the Coast Guard would regulate that we couldn't get there," Costner testified.
Houghtaling said that in addition to providing clean-up duty in the gulf, deployment of even more of the devices could aid in shortening the six-month moratorium on deep-water drilling.
He said that he'd like to see the government use the machines as a safety measure to keep the deep-water drilling rigs in operation as safety procedures are reviewed.
"By the end of August...our company can have thirty-three of the machines around the rigs. If there's a spill, we can deploy," Houtaling said.
To view an animation of how the device works, click the window below:
Meanwhile Costner's company is moving toward leasing 16 more oil sucking and separating machines to Plaquemines Parish officials directly. They say if BP won't pay for that, they may sell the oil local officials pull from the water and fund the machines that way.
View All 12 "Spill Cam" Video Feeds - WWL - AM870 | FM105.3
BP has given the green light for funding of a device that can separate oil from water.
Development of the machine, which uses a centrifuge to separate the fluids, has been backed by actor Kevin Costner to the tune of $25 million.
John Houghtaling, Costner's chief partner in the project, told WWL First News that the oil company has ordered 32 of the devices for use in the Gulf of Mexico.
"In a matter of weeks, we can be manufacturing ten of these a week," Houghtaling said. "So we're hoping by the first of August to have all 32 of these things in the Gulf."
Listen to Houtaling talk about the deployment of the device:
According to Houtaling, the machines cost roughly half a million dollars to build, but also require the hiring of vessels to take them out onto the water.
Though the world-famous actor and Houtaling are both pleased that BP has now agreed to deploy the devices, Costner told members of Congress earlier this week. that he'd had a hard time getting an opportunity to try out his centrifuge for the Coast Guard.
"We would offer to take our machines out there but we couldn't get onto the spots because the Coast Guard would regulate that we couldn't get there," Costner testified.
Houghtaling said that in addition to providing clean-up duty in the gulf, deployment of even more of the devices could aid in shortening the six-month moratorium on deep-water drilling.
He said that he'd like to see the government use the machines as a safety measure to keep the deep-water drilling rigs in operation as safety procedures are reviewed.
"By the end of August...our company can have thirty-three of the machines around the rigs. If there's a spill, we can deploy," Houtaling said.
To view an animation of how the device works, click the window below:
Meanwhile Costner's company is moving toward leasing 16 more oil sucking and separating machines to Plaquemines Parish officials directly. They say if BP won't pay for that, they may sell the oil local officials pull from the water and fund the machines that way.
View All 12 "Spill Cam" Video Feeds - WWL - AM870 | FM105.3
Monday, June 14, 2010
Kevin Costner Sold 32 Oil-Water Separation Machines to British Petroleum
Kevin Costner Sold 32 Oil-Water Separation Machines to British Petroleum
Friday, June 11, 2010
Nukes and Explosive Oil Prices
Whiskey & Gunpowder By Byron King June 11, 2010
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
A reader named Marilyn, from Oregon, wrote with the following question:
“I’ve read Internet threads where people want to use a nuclear weapon to close the oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico. Even Matt Simmons, who’s a hero to me because of his Peak Oil work, says we might need to use a nuclear weapon to close the well. Can you discuss that?”
I sure can…
Underwater Nuclear Bursts
Here’s my background even to comment on the subject. It’s based on my Navy experience, from many years ago. I should say right here that these are my personal views. Nothing I say is an “official” statement on behalf of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense or U.S. government.
A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, I flew a Navy aircraft built by Lockheed called the S-3. It was a graceful twin-engine, carrier-capable jet, and is now retired from Navy service (alas!).
If man was meant to fly, he’d have wings. Or the Navy/Lockheed S-3.
But when the S-3 was flying, one of its key missions was anti-submarine warfare (ASW). It was designed during the depths of the Cold War, when the world’s oceans were crawling with Soviet submarines. The S-3 was among the aircraft carrier’s ASW defenses.
To find Soviet submarines, the S-3 had a superb surface-search radar, and awesome electronic capabilities. The S-3 also carried a large load of sonobuoys that we’d drop in the water and use to listen for submarines.
The S-3 could carry air-delivered, conventionally armed torpedoes, if necessary. But the most powerful weapon capability for the S-3 was its ability to deliver a “special weapon,” namely a nuclear depth bomb called the B57. (This is all unclassified information, by the way. These days, you can look it up on the Internet.)
B57 Nuclear Depth Bomb, on carrying dolly.
Red nose is a plastic cover — please remove before flight.
Point is, back when I was flying S-3s, I became pretty smart about the ASW mission, and also about this particular special weapon. Thus do I know a few things about both nuclear weapons and underwater nuclear bursts.
What Could a Nuclear Weapon Accomplish?
Why are some people — the eminent Matt Simmons among them — discussing the use of nuclear weapons in the Gulf of Mexico? Does Matt know something that other people don’t? Well, I think Matt is off-base on this point. Don’t take it the “wrong” way, but Matt knows more about Peak Oil than he knows about underwater nuclear bursts.
As we used to say in the Navy, from a small splash, you get a big flash. Among people who have no or limited experience with nuclear weapons, this gives rise to many nuclear myths, if not fixations. That is, many people think that you can really DO SOMETHING with a nuclear weapon. Sorry to disappoint, but the last thing you want to do with a nuclear weapon is trigger it, particularly in a misplaced effort to seal a blownout oil well.
There’s GOT to be a better way to seal an oil well than this...
Let’s just consider the explosion. Yes, you can put a lot of energy into the earth — and the water and atmosphere — with a nuclear blast. But is that really what you want? There’s such a thing as putting “too much” energy on your target. And you still might not accomplish the mission.
Nuclear effects — especially subsurface nuclear effects — are not predictable. So even with the best efforts you will doubtless have many unintended consequences. It might seem like a good idea to place a nuclear bomb next to the leaking oil well, cook it off, move an immense level of energy toward that awful oil well and seal it up with fused glass. Except it doesn’t work that way.
Start at the Beginning
Let’s start at the beginning. You need to drill a hole first, into which to place your device. Hey, BP (BP: NYSE) is already drilling two holes next to the blownout well. The two holes are for relief wells. So now you want to drill a third hole for the nuclear device?
Then you need a nuclear device to emplace in the hole. Except that the U.S. has no nuclear devices rated for 5,000-foot and deeper water depths. Sure, U.S. special weapons are built to withstand multi-G accelerations, and all sorts of launch and drop shock loads. The devices can function in the vacuum of space. They can even pass through transient re-entry heating. But there’s no weapon design out there — none that I’ve ever heard of — to deal with the high external pressure under a mile or more of water.
That goes for nuclear-armed torpedoes as well — which I can’t discuss except to say that long ago, the Navy developed weapons to chase down Soviet deep-diving submarines. If you ever read Tom Clancy’s book The Hunt for Red October, he has a particular Soviet submarine diving to over 2,000 feet. That’s all I’ll tell you.
Wigwam Test
So let’s say that we overcome the initial obstacles of drilling a hole and emplacing a weapon. Let’s say that we can put a nuclear device down there next to the well. What happens with an underwater nuclear blast?
From unclassified sources, I can tell you that the deepest underwater nuclear explosion on record is the Operation Wigwam test, conducted on May 15, 1955. Wigwam consisted of a subsea 30-kiloton nuclear detonation, or a bit over twice the power of the 1945 Hiroshima blast.
The Wigwam test blast was about 450 miles southwest of San Diego, Calif. (29 Deg N, 126 Deg W) in open ocean, with water depth of 16,000 feet. The purpose of the test was to look at the vulnerability of submarines to deep underwater nuclear explosions. (I can’t tell you much on that, but it’s not pretty.)
The Wigwam nuclear device — a very large B7 “Betty” specially reinforced and rigged as a depth charge — was suspended by a 2,000-foot cable from a barge. The dry weight of the bomb was 8,250 pounds, and 5,700 pounds when submerged. After it detonated, here’s what the blast wave did, just before the fireball exited through the surface.
“Beware, beware!” Little splash, big flash. Cover your eyes and hope you’re upwind.
Oil, Water and... Radionuclides?
Right now we have a well spewing oil into the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like BP is getting the well under control. The relief wells are also going down, slowly but steadily. We can envision this tragedy coming to an end.
At this point, do we want to let loose a nuke and have radioactive particles mix with the oil and water? Do we want radioactive water vapor rising into the atmosphere just south of New Orleans?
And what of the shock wave? Do we want to rip the seafloor to shreds? Do we want a nuclear-level shock wave traveling through the seafloor in the vicinity of the BP oil well? What will that do? Will it break other oil pipelines installed on the bottom?
What of an oceanographic phenomenon called “bottom bounce”? That’s a situation in which the shock wave bounces off layers of seawater and travels back down to the ocean floor to be reflected even further out. You could, possibly, put destructive levels of energy many dozens of miles away from the burst point. You could break things faraway. So you see where I’m going with this.
What about the oceanic environment? This is not the early days of the Cold War. We know a lot these days about the complex biology of the ocean. Radioisotopes, like strontium and iodine, concentrate as you move up the food chain.
Your basic oyster is a filter feeder, moving hundreds of thousands of gallons of seawater through its system over its lifetime. This causes isotopes to concentrate to a level that can poison wildlife and people. Anybody or anything that eats these critters will surely suffer from radiation damage to every level of cellular function, and almost certainly to reproductive cells. More specifically, radioactive strontium and iodine concentrate in the bones and thyroid glands, respectively.
This is all straightforward, established science. If you want things to get even uglier, and last a real long time, you’ll use a nuclear weapon out in the Gulf of Mexico.
Bottom line is that we need to get the nuclear weapon discussion off the table. Put the nukes back in the bunkers, where they belong.
Where to from Here?
Marilyn, I’m glad you asked your question. But a nuke clearly isn’t the right choice.
With that said, another question comes to light…
With a small percentage of oil still flowing out of the well, a massive cleanup ensuing, more goverenment regulation and the effects of a drilling moratorium tying the hands of our energy industry – where do we go from here?
I’ll start by making a statement I’ve made before and I’ll make again: the cheap and easy oil is GONE. Finding new energy to fuel our nation is going to be harder, more regulated and more expensive.
Is a U.S. moratorium the right choice? I’ll let you decide that.
But there’s one matter that you won’t have a choice on: the higher price you pay for oil.
With oil sitting north of $70 a barrel I can’t imagine it getting any cheaper.
Indeed, a few years from now we may look back and deem this period the point where the U.S. lost its edge in energy.
That’s all for now. Thanks for reading...
Until we meet again,
Byron W. King
P.S.: As if the BP oil spill weren’t bad enough. As if this indefinite moratorium and the expensive regulations that are sure to follow weren’t worse enough...
There’s another reason oil is going to get painfully more expensive. In fact, the disaster in the Gulf and the moratorium are just icing on the cake! There are powerful forces lining up against the U.S. and they’re looking to start an absolute oil war.
But I specialize in preparing my subscribers to profit from the skyrocketing energy prices that are on their way. Some of my recommendations from 2009 alone are up 36.3...53.6...61.8...even 102.5%.
To find out more about the coming oil war...and what to do right now to be ready to profit from much higher energy prices...click here.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
A reader named Marilyn, from Oregon, wrote with the following question:
“I’ve read Internet threads where people want to use a nuclear weapon to close the oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico. Even Matt Simmons, who’s a hero to me because of his Peak Oil work, says we might need to use a nuclear weapon to close the well. Can you discuss that?”
I sure can…
Underwater Nuclear Bursts
Here’s my background even to comment on the subject. It’s based on my Navy experience, from many years ago. I should say right here that these are my personal views. Nothing I say is an “official” statement on behalf of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense or U.S. government.
A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, I flew a Navy aircraft built by Lockheed called the S-3. It was a graceful twin-engine, carrier-capable jet, and is now retired from Navy service (alas!).
If man was meant to fly, he’d have wings. Or the Navy/Lockheed S-3.
But when the S-3 was flying, one of its key missions was anti-submarine warfare (ASW). It was designed during the depths of the Cold War, when the world’s oceans were crawling with Soviet submarines. The S-3 was among the aircraft carrier’s ASW defenses.
To find Soviet submarines, the S-3 had a superb surface-search radar, and awesome electronic capabilities. The S-3 also carried a large load of sonobuoys that we’d drop in the water and use to listen for submarines.
The S-3 could carry air-delivered, conventionally armed torpedoes, if necessary. But the most powerful weapon capability for the S-3 was its ability to deliver a “special weapon,” namely a nuclear depth bomb called the B57. (This is all unclassified information, by the way. These days, you can look it up on the Internet.)
B57 Nuclear Depth Bomb, on carrying dolly.
Red nose is a plastic cover — please remove before flight.
Point is, back when I was flying S-3s, I became pretty smart about the ASW mission, and also about this particular special weapon. Thus do I know a few things about both nuclear weapons and underwater nuclear bursts.
What Could a Nuclear Weapon Accomplish?
Why are some people — the eminent Matt Simmons among them — discussing the use of nuclear weapons in the Gulf of Mexico? Does Matt know something that other people don’t? Well, I think Matt is off-base on this point. Don’t take it the “wrong” way, but Matt knows more about Peak Oil than he knows about underwater nuclear bursts.
As we used to say in the Navy, from a small splash, you get a big flash. Among people who have no or limited experience with nuclear weapons, this gives rise to many nuclear myths, if not fixations. That is, many people think that you can really DO SOMETHING with a nuclear weapon. Sorry to disappoint, but the last thing you want to do with a nuclear weapon is trigger it, particularly in a misplaced effort to seal a blownout oil well.
There’s GOT to be a better way to seal an oil well than this...
Let’s just consider the explosion. Yes, you can put a lot of energy into the earth — and the water and atmosphere — with a nuclear blast. But is that really what you want? There’s such a thing as putting “too much” energy on your target. And you still might not accomplish the mission.
Nuclear effects — especially subsurface nuclear effects — are not predictable. So even with the best efforts you will doubtless have many unintended consequences. It might seem like a good idea to place a nuclear bomb next to the leaking oil well, cook it off, move an immense level of energy toward that awful oil well and seal it up with fused glass. Except it doesn’t work that way.
Start at the Beginning
Let’s start at the beginning. You need to drill a hole first, into which to place your device. Hey, BP (BP: NYSE) is already drilling two holes next to the blownout well. The two holes are for relief wells. So now you want to drill a third hole for the nuclear device?
Then you need a nuclear device to emplace in the hole. Except that the U.S. has no nuclear devices rated for 5,000-foot and deeper water depths. Sure, U.S. special weapons are built to withstand multi-G accelerations, and all sorts of launch and drop shock loads. The devices can function in the vacuum of space. They can even pass through transient re-entry heating. But there’s no weapon design out there — none that I’ve ever heard of — to deal with the high external pressure under a mile or more of water.
That goes for nuclear-armed torpedoes as well — which I can’t discuss except to say that long ago, the Navy developed weapons to chase down Soviet deep-diving submarines. If you ever read Tom Clancy’s book The Hunt for Red October, he has a particular Soviet submarine diving to over 2,000 feet. That’s all I’ll tell you.
Wigwam Test
So let’s say that we overcome the initial obstacles of drilling a hole and emplacing a weapon. Let’s say that we can put a nuclear device down there next to the well. What happens with an underwater nuclear blast?
From unclassified sources, I can tell you that the deepest underwater nuclear explosion on record is the Operation Wigwam test, conducted on May 15, 1955. Wigwam consisted of a subsea 30-kiloton nuclear detonation, or a bit over twice the power of the 1945 Hiroshima blast.
The Wigwam test blast was about 450 miles southwest of San Diego, Calif. (29 Deg N, 126 Deg W) in open ocean, with water depth of 16,000 feet. The purpose of the test was to look at the vulnerability of submarines to deep underwater nuclear explosions. (I can’t tell you much on that, but it’s not pretty.)
The Wigwam nuclear device — a very large B7 “Betty” specially reinforced and rigged as a depth charge — was suspended by a 2,000-foot cable from a barge. The dry weight of the bomb was 8,250 pounds, and 5,700 pounds when submerged. After it detonated, here’s what the blast wave did, just before the fireball exited through the surface.
“Beware, beware!” Little splash, big flash. Cover your eyes and hope you’re upwind.
Oil, Water and... Radionuclides?
Right now we have a well spewing oil into the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like BP is getting the well under control. The relief wells are also going down, slowly but steadily. We can envision this tragedy coming to an end.
At this point, do we want to let loose a nuke and have radioactive particles mix with the oil and water? Do we want radioactive water vapor rising into the atmosphere just south of New Orleans?
And what of the shock wave? Do we want to rip the seafloor to shreds? Do we want a nuclear-level shock wave traveling through the seafloor in the vicinity of the BP oil well? What will that do? Will it break other oil pipelines installed on the bottom?
What of an oceanographic phenomenon called “bottom bounce”? That’s a situation in which the shock wave bounces off layers of seawater and travels back down to the ocean floor to be reflected even further out. You could, possibly, put destructive levels of energy many dozens of miles away from the burst point. You could break things faraway. So you see where I’m going with this.
What about the oceanic environment? This is not the early days of the Cold War. We know a lot these days about the complex biology of the ocean. Radioisotopes, like strontium and iodine, concentrate as you move up the food chain.
Your basic oyster is a filter feeder, moving hundreds of thousands of gallons of seawater through its system over its lifetime. This causes isotopes to concentrate to a level that can poison wildlife and people. Anybody or anything that eats these critters will surely suffer from radiation damage to every level of cellular function, and almost certainly to reproductive cells. More specifically, radioactive strontium and iodine concentrate in the bones and thyroid glands, respectively.
This is all straightforward, established science. If you want things to get even uglier, and last a real long time, you’ll use a nuclear weapon out in the Gulf of Mexico.
Bottom line is that we need to get the nuclear weapon discussion off the table. Put the nukes back in the bunkers, where they belong.
Where to from Here?
Marilyn, I’m glad you asked your question. But a nuke clearly isn’t the right choice.
With that said, another question comes to light…
With a small percentage of oil still flowing out of the well, a massive cleanup ensuing, more goverenment regulation and the effects of a drilling moratorium tying the hands of our energy industry – where do we go from here?
I’ll start by making a statement I’ve made before and I’ll make again: the cheap and easy oil is GONE. Finding new energy to fuel our nation is going to be harder, more regulated and more expensive.
Is a U.S. moratorium the right choice? I’ll let you decide that.
But there’s one matter that you won’t have a choice on: the higher price you pay for oil.
With oil sitting north of $70 a barrel I can’t imagine it getting any cheaper.
Indeed, a few years from now we may look back and deem this period the point where the U.S. lost its edge in energy.
That’s all for now. Thanks for reading...
Until we meet again,
Byron W. King
P.S.: As if the BP oil spill weren’t bad enough. As if this indefinite moratorium and the expensive regulations that are sure to follow weren’t worse enough...
There’s another reason oil is going to get painfully more expensive. In fact, the disaster in the Gulf and the moratorium are just icing on the cake! There are powerful forces lining up against the U.S. and they’re looking to start an absolute oil war.
But I specialize in preparing my subscribers to profit from the skyrocketing energy prices that are on their way. Some of my recommendations from 2009 alone are up 36.3...53.6...61.8...even 102.5%.
To find out more about the coming oil war...and what to do right now to be ready to profit from much higher energy prices...click here.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
If You Build It : Kevin Costner Builds Oil-Water Separation Machines
By LIZ ROBBINS
For 15 years, Kevin Costner has been overseeing the construction of oil separation machines to prepare for the possibility of another disaster of the magnitude of the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill.
Does this evoke his tagline from “Field of Dreams?” It seems that Mr. Costner, the 55-year-old actor, environmental activist and fisherman, was ready for the current spill in the gulf.
Disturbed by the effects of the Valdez spill in Alaska, Mr. Costner bought the nascent technology from the government in 1995 and put $24 million of his own money into developing it for the private sector.
“Kevin saw the Exxon Valdez spill, and as a fisherman and an environmentalist, it just stuck in his craw, the fact that we didn’t have separation technology,” said John Houghtaling, Mr. Costner’s lawyer and business partner as chief executive with Ocean Therapy Solutions, which developed the technology.
Mr. Costner’s brother, Dan, is a scientist who worked on the project and was also in New Orleans this week.
On Wednesday, BP’s chief operating officer, Doug Suttles, said that the company had approved six of Ocean Therapy’s 32 machines for testing. All boast centrifuge processing technology — giant vacuum-like machines that suck oil from water, separate the oil, store it in a tanker and send the water, 99.9 percent purified, back into the gulf.
“I’m very happy the light of day has come to this,” Mr. Costner said at a news conference in New Orleans. He said he was “very sad” about the spill, “but this is why it’s developed.”
“It’s prepared to go out and solve problems, not talk about them,” the actor said of the technology.
Mr. Houghtaling of Ocean Therapy Solutions said that the company had trained independent contractors and were bringing in scientists from U.C.L.A. to deploy the machines, which were waiting on a barge in Venice, La., on Wednesday afternoon.
The technology was available for use 10 years ago, Mr. Houghtaling said. “These machines have been very robust, but nobody’s been interested in them until now,” he added.
BP officials and Ocean Therapy are working to determine where best in the gulf to test the machines, and if all goes well, the technology will be running within the week, he said. “We just need the green light from BP.”
He said that the largest four machines have the capability of separating 210,000 gallons of oil from water a day, 200 gallons a minute.
Monday, May 24, 2010
The $150 Billion Question: Is BP Too Big to Fail?
May 24, 2010
Dear Outstanding Investments Reader:
The oil blowout in the Gulf of Mexico continues. The world's third-largest publicly-held oil company, BP (BP: NYSE), is squarely at ground-zero -- literally and figuratively.
Can this blowout also blow up BP? Or put another way, is BP too big to fail? That's the $150 billion question. And sooner or later, we're going to find out.
Getting Worse, for How Long?
How bad is the oil spill? It's bad and getting worse. I said a few weeks ago that this oil spill would get worse before it gets better. We're still in that "getting worse" phase. The continuing oil spill is so bad that it's hard to say how truly bad it is.
Conventional wisdom is that oil rises through water and floats on the top. Conventional wisdom is also wrong. In a May 19th alert, I discussed how much of the gushing oil remains deep underwater in the Gulf of Mexico. No one knows much about where the underwater oil is, or where and how it's harming aquatic life in the water column. Meanwhile, topside, we have oil washing ashore in significant, gooey amounts, into the coastal marshes and other fragile ecosystems. It's just awful.
According to Roger Helm, of the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (and quoted in the Washington Post), "We've never really seen this kind of thing. This one's coming in a way that has a lot of us working to understand, what is going to be the longer-term impact? […] How do we get our brain around this?"
The Aliens Have Landed
"How do we get our brain around this?" Well, first you have to understand what it means to have a deepwater blowout. This has NEVER happened before. It's an entirely new form of chemistry and physics. Throw out the old books.
Deepwater work involves extreme risks and events that are difficult to foresee. Just the mechanical tolerances for equipment -- down to the smallest of components like seals, gaskets and wire bundles -- are close to basic, atomic, physical limits of strength. Yes, the technology is impressive. That's because it's at the far edge of the envelope, at the limits of industrial capability.
Add to this that in the deep sea, strange things happen. There are bacteria that eat iron (look at the remains of the Titanic, for example). Natural gas forms into solids called clathrates. Other kinds of materials -- metals, coatings and fluids -- behave unpredictably.
When you're in deepwater, you cross over something like an "event horizon." You're not just dealing with complicated systems any more. You've gone from complicated to complex – which represents a big difference in terms of predicting things. Small inputs can trigger large, asymmetrical responses.
The allegory is that the aliens have landed, and they're tearing up the place. It's like First Contact or something. No one has ever had to deal with this scope of disaster before.
We're facing a deepwater super-well, spewing immense volumes of oil under immense levels of pressure into freezing water, through badly damaged equipment. Uncontrolled, this thing could blast oil into the benthic regions of the Gulf of Mexico for years. Science fiction has become science fact. Wrap your brain around it.
Kill the Well
The best hope for the near term is that BP kills the well this week. BP has moved pumping equipment, drilling mud and cement into position. The total energy available for pumping is in the range of 50,000 horsepower. That's the equivalent power output of ten standard railway locomotives.
In some respects, the pumping power is similar to a "fracking" job, like with fracturing the Marcellus Shale or Bakken Shale. The plan is to inject drilling mud into a series of valves at the bottom of the blowout preventer. The idea is to "out-pump the well," in the words of one BP representative with whom I spoke last week.
If the well won't take the kill-shot, then we might see uncontrolled oil gushing for up to three more months. That's how long it will take two different rigs to drill "relief" wells to intersect the existing hole, and pump it full of cement. Here's the BP graphic.
Will the relief well work? It ought to. These kinds of things have worked in the past. But it's going to take time -- three months or more -- and every day of blowout is more oil pouring into the Gulf, with more environmental damage.
Plus, keep in mind that under the best circumstances the relief well won't be easy to accomplish. For example, when the relief well gets near the bottom of the existing well, they'll have to "steer" the bit precisely, so as to bust through the cement and steel casing. It's like hitting a coffee can at 18,000 feet.
How Much Oil?
Meanwhile, how bad is the ongoing oil spill? It's likely that the oil volumes coming from the blown out well are more than the previously-advertised 5,000 barrels of oil per day. Just consider that BP is recovering anywhere from 2,500 to 5,000 barrels of oil per day, via the 4-inch wide "insertion tube" -- add that to the additional crude spilling directly into the water and it’s pretty clear to see the total could be more than 5,000 barrels a day. The amount varies, day to day, because the oil is mixed in with gas slugs. Sometimes the tube sucks up a lot of oil. Sometimes it's mostly gas.
To my mind, it's no big shock that the oil volumes have apparently increased over the past month, since the blowout occurred.
Initially, there was probably crud or debris down in the pipes that choked-back some of the oil flow. Then over time, those blockages were blasted out of the way by the continuing pressure of the oil blowout.
Now, we have oil and gas coming out of the reservoir, and up the casing pipe at high velocity. It's likely there are small bits of rock, sand, clay and whatever else in that fluid stream. So the continuing flow is essentially sand-blasting the innards of the blowout preventer and pipe system. The flow of oil may actually be widening its own path. That's why we see increased amounts of oil and gas over time.
Ugly Images
You want to see something ugly? Here goes.
This image is oil billowing out of the cracked riser pipe. It's just above the blowout preventer, manufactured by Cameron International (CAM: NYSE). This uncontrolled oil plume is in addition to the other oil that's moving "up" the riser piping (on the left of the photo).
As I've mentioned, some of the oil is being sucked out of the broken riser. (It's further along the pipe system.) This oil and gas moves up a long pipeline to the surface. There, it gets processed for temporary storage aboard a drilling ship named the Discoverer Enterprise, owned by Transocean, Ltd. (RIG: NYSE) . In addition to recovering the oil, the Enterprise is flaring about 14 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.
We can see a lot of what's going on via streaming video from the deep-sea remotely operating vehicles (ROVs). Some of these remarkable systems are manufactured and serviced by Oceaneering International (OII: NYSE). The ROVs show hard evidence that large volumes of oil are still entering into the water column, despite the physical recovery of the 5,000 or so barrels per day.
Too Big to Fail?
The continuing BP oil spill has prompted many comparisons with the Exxon Valdez oil spill, 20 years ago. Exxon shares took a big hit, and then recovered. So by analogy, a lot of handicappers are wondering if BP shares are taking the same kind of hit, and will come out of this and recover.
Well, Exxon Valdez was then, in Alaska. This is now, in the Gulf of Mexico. So every day, as things unfold, I ask myself how bad this can get for BP. BP management has stated that the company can weather this crisis. But let's ask it another way. Is BP too big to fail?
Right now, BP is paying through the nose. So far, BP has spent over $500 million on response-related costs, just in the first month. This deepwater blowout is unprecedented in so many ways -- expensive is just one of them. I've seen numbers like $10 billion, eventually, just for the out-of-pocket costs for well-control and oil spill abatement. Truth is, nobody knows and no one will know for many years.
Meanwhile, the U.S. plaintiff-lawyer community is lined up to take a chunk out of BP. So are the state governments, as well as the federal government. The Department of Justice is reviewing the facts, with the possible end of filing criminal charges against BP. Just recall what a criminal conviction did to the fortunes of, say, the late Arthur Anderson Co.
BP Is Important
Keep in mind, though, that BP is a critical part of the U.S. energy system. By extension, BP is important to the U.S. government and national energy policy.
The fact is that BP is the largest oil producer in the U.S., at over 400,000 barrels per day just from the Gulf of Mexico. Up north, BP has a dominant position at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, a field that lifts about another 400,000 barrels of oil per day.
BP has a controlling interest in the Alaska Pipeline.
Then there's BP's nationwide, downstream refining and product-marketing system. Think about how many cars, trucks, buses, railway locomotives and airplanes run on BP fuel, delivered under one contract or another. Try sorting that mess out if BP goes down hard.
Consider that BP is a large, global concern. Every day, across the world, BP produces about 4 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). That's about 4.7% of the world's liquid energy supply. Also, BP has 42 major, new oil projects under development, and scheduled to be online by 2015, producing another 1 million BOE per day. Screw that up by putting BP out of business, and we'll probably see those $200 per barrel oil prices sooner than we thought.
Beyond the raw numbers, BP has a critical energy relationship with the government of Russia. BP also has a large contract with the government of Iraq to resurrect Iraq's oil industry. So BP is important to the strategic aims of Russia and the West (certainly to the U.S.). Put BP out of business, and then what? Break out your prayer rug and face Mecca, I guess.
If push comes to shove, you should expect that BP will have the full backing of the UK government. BP is a huge employer in Britain. BP pays an immense amount of taxes to the UK government, and the UK government needs those funds. Pres. Obama may have returned a bust of Winston Churchill to the British, early in his presidency. But the British will want Obama's head on a platter if BP goes down under his administration.
Right now, the dividend yield for BP is 7.4%. That's nice, but the high return probably includes the risk that the BP board will -- sooner or later -- slash the dividend. It would be unseemly for BP to be paying large dividends, at the same time that it's also diverting funds to well-control and cleanup costs, not to mention handling damage claims. So the dividend is no longer safe, in my view.
BP -- Professional Defendant
Here's something else. BP may as well change its business model to include being a professional defendant. In years to come, BP will devote immense amounts of money and management time to litigation.
BP may even have a hard time making future energy development deals, due to the Deepwater Horizon legacy issues. I can hear it now. "Oh yes, you're the company that blew out that well in the Gulf of Mexico." The image problem may extend to BP having a hard time recruiting talent in years to come, due to the stigma.
Back to the Question
So we come back full circle to that question. Is BP too big to fail? I don't think BP will "fail." That is, BP is going to "pay" but not fail.
I'll feel a heck of a lot better about BP's prospects if (when?) BP kills that well this week. I'm not down there on the water, and I only know what I've been told. But I have a good feeling about BP killing the well. They literally have the horsepower to do it, if it can be accomplished at all.
If this week's kill-shot doesn't work, then I believe BP will nail the well in three months with the relief wells. But killing the well now is obviously better, in every way. With an immediate well-kill, there's a HUGE cleanup bill ahead of BP. But the "good" news is that the oil spill will stop. At least there won't be more oil gushing out every day.
Will the Short-Sellers Fail?
There's been a lot of short-selling of BP in recent weeks. A lot of players are betting that the share price for BP will fall, and even that BP will fail. Watch out, boys and girls. If BP kills that well this week, watch for a spike in the share price, with plenty of short-covering.
If you want to sell into that short-covering, then be ready to pull the trigger fast. I think BP shares will pop up after a successful well-kill, and then pull back after the shorts do their covering thing.
If there's no well-kill? If BP has to continue drilling relief wells? Ugh. More oil blowing out for three more months. Bad becomes much worse. The markets will hate BP. And BP stock will slide downwards.
It's Not Just BP That's Down, Lately
Final point. BP shares are way down in the past month. The Gulf of Mexico disaster is a big part of it. But then again, due to world economic issues the price of oil has dropped from the $85 per barrel range to the $70 range. So the entire oil sector is down.
Chevron, for example, is down about 10% in the past month. So is Conoco-Phillips. Exxon Mobil is down about 12% in the same time period. Thus it's safe to say that the BP share slide is not entirely due to the Gulf of Mexico well blowout. If (when) the price of oil goes back up, that alone will lift BP shares.
Is BP too big to fail? Well, BP sure is taking its hits. I'll climb out on a limb and say that I think BP will be around for many years to come. And the company will recover from this horrible mess.
That's all for now. Thanks for reading...
Byron W. King
Dear Outstanding Investments Reader:
The oil blowout in the Gulf of Mexico continues. The world's third-largest publicly-held oil company, BP (BP: NYSE), is squarely at ground-zero -- literally and figuratively.
Can this blowout also blow up BP? Or put another way, is BP too big to fail? That's the $150 billion question. And sooner or later, we're going to find out.
Getting Worse, for How Long?
How bad is the oil spill? It's bad and getting worse. I said a few weeks ago that this oil spill would get worse before it gets better. We're still in that "getting worse" phase. The continuing oil spill is so bad that it's hard to say how truly bad it is.
Conventional wisdom is that oil rises through water and floats on the top. Conventional wisdom is also wrong. In a May 19th alert, I discussed how much of the gushing oil remains deep underwater in the Gulf of Mexico. No one knows much about where the underwater oil is, or where and how it's harming aquatic life in the water column. Meanwhile, topside, we have oil washing ashore in significant, gooey amounts, into the coastal marshes and other fragile ecosystems. It's just awful.
According to Roger Helm, of the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (and quoted in the Washington Post), "We've never really seen this kind of thing. This one's coming in a way that has a lot of us working to understand, what is going to be the longer-term impact? […] How do we get our brain around this?"
The Aliens Have Landed
"How do we get our brain around this?" Well, first you have to understand what it means to have a deepwater blowout. This has NEVER happened before. It's an entirely new form of chemistry and physics. Throw out the old books.
Deepwater work involves extreme risks and events that are difficult to foresee. Just the mechanical tolerances for equipment -- down to the smallest of components like seals, gaskets and wire bundles -- are close to basic, atomic, physical limits of strength. Yes, the technology is impressive. That's because it's at the far edge of the envelope, at the limits of industrial capability.
Add to this that in the deep sea, strange things happen. There are bacteria that eat iron (look at the remains of the Titanic, for example). Natural gas forms into solids called clathrates. Other kinds of materials -- metals, coatings and fluids -- behave unpredictably.
When you're in deepwater, you cross over something like an "event horizon." You're not just dealing with complicated systems any more. You've gone from complicated to complex – which represents a big difference in terms of predicting things. Small inputs can trigger large, asymmetrical responses.
The allegory is that the aliens have landed, and they're tearing up the place. It's like First Contact or something. No one has ever had to deal with this scope of disaster before.
We're facing a deepwater super-well, spewing immense volumes of oil under immense levels of pressure into freezing water, through badly damaged equipment. Uncontrolled, this thing could blast oil into the benthic regions of the Gulf of Mexico for years. Science fiction has become science fact. Wrap your brain around it.
Kill the Well
The best hope for the near term is that BP kills the well this week. BP has moved pumping equipment, drilling mud and cement into position. The total energy available for pumping is in the range of 50,000 horsepower. That's the equivalent power output of ten standard railway locomotives.
In some respects, the pumping power is similar to a "fracking" job, like with fracturing the Marcellus Shale or Bakken Shale. The plan is to inject drilling mud into a series of valves at the bottom of the blowout preventer. The idea is to "out-pump the well," in the words of one BP representative with whom I spoke last week.
If the well won't take the kill-shot, then we might see uncontrolled oil gushing for up to three more months. That's how long it will take two different rigs to drill "relief" wells to intersect the existing hole, and pump it full of cement. Here's the BP graphic.
Will the relief well work? It ought to. These kinds of things have worked in the past. But it's going to take time -- three months or more -- and every day of blowout is more oil pouring into the Gulf, with more environmental damage.
Plus, keep in mind that under the best circumstances the relief well won't be easy to accomplish. For example, when the relief well gets near the bottom of the existing well, they'll have to "steer" the bit precisely, so as to bust through the cement and steel casing. It's like hitting a coffee can at 18,000 feet.
How Much Oil?
Meanwhile, how bad is the ongoing oil spill? It's likely that the oil volumes coming from the blown out well are more than the previously-advertised 5,000 barrels of oil per day. Just consider that BP is recovering anywhere from 2,500 to 5,000 barrels of oil per day, via the 4-inch wide "insertion tube" -- add that to the additional crude spilling directly into the water and it’s pretty clear to see the total could be more than 5,000 barrels a day. The amount varies, day to day, because the oil is mixed in with gas slugs. Sometimes the tube sucks up a lot of oil. Sometimes it's mostly gas.
To my mind, it's no big shock that the oil volumes have apparently increased over the past month, since the blowout occurred.
Initially, there was probably crud or debris down in the pipes that choked-back some of the oil flow. Then over time, those blockages were blasted out of the way by the continuing pressure of the oil blowout.
Now, we have oil and gas coming out of the reservoir, and up the casing pipe at high velocity. It's likely there are small bits of rock, sand, clay and whatever else in that fluid stream. So the continuing flow is essentially sand-blasting the innards of the blowout preventer and pipe system. The flow of oil may actually be widening its own path. That's why we see increased amounts of oil and gas over time.
Ugly Images
You want to see something ugly? Here goes.
This image is oil billowing out of the cracked riser pipe. It's just above the blowout preventer, manufactured by Cameron International (CAM: NYSE). This uncontrolled oil plume is in addition to the other oil that's moving "up" the riser piping (on the left of the photo).
As I've mentioned, some of the oil is being sucked out of the broken riser. (It's further along the pipe system.) This oil and gas moves up a long pipeline to the surface. There, it gets processed for temporary storage aboard a drilling ship named the Discoverer Enterprise, owned by Transocean, Ltd. (RIG: NYSE) . In addition to recovering the oil, the Enterprise is flaring about 14 million cubic feet of natural gas per day.
We can see a lot of what's going on via streaming video from the deep-sea remotely operating vehicles (ROVs). Some of these remarkable systems are manufactured and serviced by Oceaneering International (OII: NYSE). The ROVs show hard evidence that large volumes of oil are still entering into the water column, despite the physical recovery of the 5,000 or so barrels per day.
Too Big to Fail?
The continuing BP oil spill has prompted many comparisons with the Exxon Valdez oil spill, 20 years ago. Exxon shares took a big hit, and then recovered. So by analogy, a lot of handicappers are wondering if BP shares are taking the same kind of hit, and will come out of this and recover.
Well, Exxon Valdez was then, in Alaska. This is now, in the Gulf of Mexico. So every day, as things unfold, I ask myself how bad this can get for BP. BP management has stated that the company can weather this crisis. But let's ask it another way. Is BP too big to fail?
Right now, BP is paying through the nose. So far, BP has spent over $500 million on response-related costs, just in the first month. This deepwater blowout is unprecedented in so many ways -- expensive is just one of them. I've seen numbers like $10 billion, eventually, just for the out-of-pocket costs for well-control and oil spill abatement. Truth is, nobody knows and no one will know for many years.
Meanwhile, the U.S. plaintiff-lawyer community is lined up to take a chunk out of BP. So are the state governments, as well as the federal government. The Department of Justice is reviewing the facts, with the possible end of filing criminal charges against BP. Just recall what a criminal conviction did to the fortunes of, say, the late Arthur Anderson Co.
BP Is Important
Keep in mind, though, that BP is a critical part of the U.S. energy system. By extension, BP is important to the U.S. government and national energy policy.
The fact is that BP is the largest oil producer in the U.S., at over 400,000 barrels per day just from the Gulf of Mexico. Up north, BP has a dominant position at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, a field that lifts about another 400,000 barrels of oil per day.
BP has a controlling interest in the Alaska Pipeline.
Then there's BP's nationwide, downstream refining and product-marketing system. Think about how many cars, trucks, buses, railway locomotives and airplanes run on BP fuel, delivered under one contract or another. Try sorting that mess out if BP goes down hard.
Consider that BP is a large, global concern. Every day, across the world, BP produces about 4 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). That's about 4.7% of the world's liquid energy supply. Also, BP has 42 major, new oil projects under development, and scheduled to be online by 2015, producing another 1 million BOE per day. Screw that up by putting BP out of business, and we'll probably see those $200 per barrel oil prices sooner than we thought.
Beyond the raw numbers, BP has a critical energy relationship with the government of Russia. BP also has a large contract with the government of Iraq to resurrect Iraq's oil industry. So BP is important to the strategic aims of Russia and the West (certainly to the U.S.). Put BP out of business, and then what? Break out your prayer rug and face Mecca, I guess.
If push comes to shove, you should expect that BP will have the full backing of the UK government. BP is a huge employer in Britain. BP pays an immense amount of taxes to the UK government, and the UK government needs those funds. Pres. Obama may have returned a bust of Winston Churchill to the British, early in his presidency. But the British will want Obama's head on a platter if BP goes down under his administration.
Right now, the dividend yield for BP is 7.4%. That's nice, but the high return probably includes the risk that the BP board will -- sooner or later -- slash the dividend. It would be unseemly for BP to be paying large dividends, at the same time that it's also diverting funds to well-control and cleanup costs, not to mention handling damage claims. So the dividend is no longer safe, in my view.
BP -- Professional Defendant
Here's something else. BP may as well change its business model to include being a professional defendant. In years to come, BP will devote immense amounts of money and management time to litigation.
BP may even have a hard time making future energy development deals, due to the Deepwater Horizon legacy issues. I can hear it now. "Oh yes, you're the company that blew out that well in the Gulf of Mexico." The image problem may extend to BP having a hard time recruiting talent in years to come, due to the stigma.
Back to the Question
So we come back full circle to that question. Is BP too big to fail? I don't think BP will "fail." That is, BP is going to "pay" but not fail.
I'll feel a heck of a lot better about BP's prospects if (when?) BP kills that well this week. I'm not down there on the water, and I only know what I've been told. But I have a good feeling about BP killing the well. They literally have the horsepower to do it, if it can be accomplished at all.
If this week's kill-shot doesn't work, then I believe BP will nail the well in three months with the relief wells. But killing the well now is obviously better, in every way. With an immediate well-kill, there's a HUGE cleanup bill ahead of BP. But the "good" news is that the oil spill will stop. At least there won't be more oil gushing out every day.
Will the Short-Sellers Fail?
There's been a lot of short-selling of BP in recent weeks. A lot of players are betting that the share price for BP will fall, and even that BP will fail. Watch out, boys and girls. If BP kills that well this week, watch for a spike in the share price, with plenty of short-covering.
If you want to sell into that short-covering, then be ready to pull the trigger fast. I think BP shares will pop up after a successful well-kill, and then pull back after the shorts do their covering thing.
If there's no well-kill? If BP has to continue drilling relief wells? Ugh. More oil blowing out for three more months. Bad becomes much worse. The markets will hate BP. And BP stock will slide downwards.
It's Not Just BP That's Down, Lately
Final point. BP shares are way down in the past month. The Gulf of Mexico disaster is a big part of it. But then again, due to world economic issues the price of oil has dropped from the $85 per barrel range to the $70 range. So the entire oil sector is down.
Chevron, for example, is down about 10% in the past month. So is Conoco-Phillips. Exxon Mobil is down about 12% in the same time period. Thus it's safe to say that the BP share slide is not entirely due to the Gulf of Mexico well blowout. If (when) the price of oil goes back up, that alone will lift BP shares.
Is BP too big to fail? Well, BP sure is taking its hits. I'll climb out on a limb and say that I think BP will be around for many years to come. And the company will recover from this horrible mess.
That's all for now. Thanks for reading...
Byron W. King
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Corporations:Unaccountable,Out of Control,Environmental Terrorists !
From Wall Street to the Gulf of Mexico, the news lately has been full of disasters caused by big corporations. They're out of control. Unaccountable. And they're getting away with it because they've bought so much influence in Washington.
It's time to take on the corporate lobbyists who have a stranglehold on our democracy. So on Monday at noon, thousands of progressives from MoveOn, AFL-CIO, SEIU, Jobs for Justice and National People's Action are going straight to K Street in Washington, DC to let the corporate lobbyists and their friends in Congress know we've had enough.
Since you don't live in the DC area, you probably think you can't be there. But we've rigged up an awesome virtual "march" web page that will allow you to still make your voice heard—right from your desk. You can join the event live from your computer anytime between 11:45 a.m. and 2 p.m.
Click here to RSVP:
At the virtual march, you can:
* Check out live video and a live blog from the march site.
* Make sure the march's message reaches Washington by letting your senators know we need to end the domination of corporations in Washington, DC.
* Talk to other virtual marchers and share a photo of yourself with your own rally sign.
RSVP to join the march online and add your voice here.
Hope to see you there, and thanks for all you do.
–Ilyse, Amy, Tim, Milan, and the rest of the team
P.S. The virtual march will be posted at this link tomorrow, if you want to bookmark it now!
Want to support our work? We're entirely funded by our 5 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.
It's time to take on the corporate lobbyists who have a stranglehold on our democracy. So on Monday at noon, thousands of progressives from MoveOn, AFL-CIO, SEIU, Jobs for Justice and National People's Action are going straight to K Street in Washington, DC to let the corporate lobbyists and their friends in Congress know we've had enough.
Since you don't live in the DC area, you probably think you can't be there. But we've rigged up an awesome virtual "march" web page that will allow you to still make your voice heard—right from your desk. You can join the event live from your computer anytime between 11:45 a.m. and 2 p.m.
Click here to RSVP:
At the virtual march, you can:
* Check out live video and a live blog from the march site.
* Make sure the march's message reaches Washington by letting your senators know we need to end the domination of corporations in Washington, DC.
* Talk to other virtual marchers and share a photo of yourself with your own rally sign.
RSVP to join the march online and add your voice here.
Hope to see you there, and thanks for all you do.
–Ilyse, Amy, Tim, Milan, and the rest of the team
P.S. The virtual march will be posted at this link tomorrow, if you want to bookmark it now!
Want to support our work? We're entirely funded by our 5 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Debt Car Pile Up: Europeans & IMF Bailout "Cook the Book" Greeks
Debt Car Pile Up:
The futility of increasing debt on the road to prosperity
by Joel Bowman
Reporting from Taipei, Taiwan...
Turns out a trillion euros just ain't what it used to be.
The moribund currency fell for a third straight session in overnight trading. The downward pressure has been almost unrelenting ever since Europe's anti-brain trust drove a $957 billion stake through the credibility of the world's major, alternative fiat currency (the greenback being, for the time being, the paper I.O.U. of choice).
After exhibiting an astounding - for the political class - degree of conviction and fiscal integrity in the face of the rioting Hellenes, European leaders caved like a cheep deck of cards over the weekend. The package promises $560 billion in new loans (debt) and $76 billion under an existing lending program (more debt). The International Monetary Fund plans to contribute up to an additional $321 billion (more debt).
Perhaps the most astounding aspect of the whole euro-crisis is that individuals occupying positions of influence still believe piling new debt upon old debt is akin to some kind of road to future prosperity. Surely the subprime meltdown - itself caused by layer upon layer of unserviceable debt - can't be that distant a memory for them. Apparently applicants for high office need to check the "goldfish" box when the memory aptitude question comes up.
And what kind of message do they think this conveys to the world's investors? A few Molotov cocktails and a rowdy bunch of ne'er-do-wells down tools for a few days and the continent's political backbone turns to Plasticine?
Unsurprisingly, some central banks may have already begun cutting purchases of euros. Stuart Thomson, of Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, today told Bloomberg, "The ECB is on its way to quantitative easing, its reputation was damaged over the weekend, and the support it had been getting from central banks wasn't spotted this morning... Central banks are normally in supporting the euro but they haven't been seen today."
Of course, it takes more than merely the precipitous collapse of a 16- nation currency to dissuade the marching mobs. Behaving somewhat out of character, the Greeks aren't taking their portion of the handout lying down. Not by a long shot. This, from Reuters:
"Greek workers on Wednesday called a 24-hour general strike for May 20, the latest in a series of protests against planned pension cuts linked to an international 110-billion-euro ($139.7 billion) bailout for Greece."
This isn't over yet, fellow reckoners. Not by a long shot. (As we were writing these words, in fact, news that the leader of Spain's largest union will call a public sector strike was just coming across the wires.) We can't wait to see what happens when the Spaniards line up for their "fair share" of the increasingly worthless bailout goop...and the Italians...and the...well, you've read this list before...and it ends at Uncle Sam's doorstep.
Gold, meanwhile, rocketed to another all-time nominal high overnight. It's still a long way off its real, inflation-adjusted record - somewhere around the $2,300 per ounce mark - and we're not predicting an end to gold's secular bull market any time soon. The appeal of the "barbarous relic," as many are just coming to discover, is that, unlike inked paper supported by spineless politicians and back-patting vote- buyers, it does not owe anybody anything. It is no one else's liability. To the extent that you do not trust the political will to defend a paper currency, in other words, you ought to trust the yellow metal in your hand.
And now for today's column...
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The futility of increasing debt on the road to prosperity
by Joel Bowman
Reporting from Taipei, Taiwan...
Turns out a trillion euros just ain't what it used to be.
The moribund currency fell for a third straight session in overnight trading. The downward pressure has been almost unrelenting ever since Europe's anti-brain trust drove a $957 billion stake through the credibility of the world's major, alternative fiat currency (the greenback being, for the time being, the paper I.O.U. of choice).
After exhibiting an astounding - for the political class - degree of conviction and fiscal integrity in the face of the rioting Hellenes, European leaders caved like a cheep deck of cards over the weekend. The package promises $560 billion in new loans (debt) and $76 billion under an existing lending program (more debt). The International Monetary Fund plans to contribute up to an additional $321 billion (more debt).
Perhaps the most astounding aspect of the whole euro-crisis is that individuals occupying positions of influence still believe piling new debt upon old debt is akin to some kind of road to future prosperity. Surely the subprime meltdown - itself caused by layer upon layer of unserviceable debt - can't be that distant a memory for them. Apparently applicants for high office need to check the "goldfish" box when the memory aptitude question comes up.
And what kind of message do they think this conveys to the world's investors? A few Molotov cocktails and a rowdy bunch of ne'er-do-wells down tools for a few days and the continent's political backbone turns to Plasticine?
Unsurprisingly, some central banks may have already begun cutting purchases of euros. Stuart Thomson, of Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, today told Bloomberg, "The ECB is on its way to quantitative easing, its reputation was damaged over the weekend, and the support it had been getting from central banks wasn't spotted this morning... Central banks are normally in supporting the euro but they haven't been seen today."
Of course, it takes more than merely the precipitous collapse of a 16- nation currency to dissuade the marching mobs. Behaving somewhat out of character, the Greeks aren't taking their portion of the handout lying down. Not by a long shot. This, from Reuters:
"Greek workers on Wednesday called a 24-hour general strike for May 20, the latest in a series of protests against planned pension cuts linked to an international 110-billion-euro ($139.7 billion) bailout for Greece."
This isn't over yet, fellow reckoners. Not by a long shot. (As we were writing these words, in fact, news that the leader of Spain's largest union will call a public sector strike was just coming across the wires.) We can't wait to see what happens when the Spaniards line up for their "fair share" of the increasingly worthless bailout goop...and the Italians...and the...well, you've read this list before...and it ends at Uncle Sam's doorstep.
Gold, meanwhile, rocketed to another all-time nominal high overnight. It's still a long way off its real, inflation-adjusted record - somewhere around the $2,300 per ounce mark - and we're not predicting an end to gold's secular bull market any time soon. The appeal of the "barbarous relic," as many are just coming to discover, is that, unlike inked paper supported by spineless politicians and back-patting vote- buyers, it does not owe anybody anything. It is no one else's liability. To the extent that you do not trust the political will to defend a paper currency, in other words, you ought to trust the yellow metal in your hand.
And now for today's column...
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It doesn't matter how much money you have now... Your cash could grow by 56% average leaps - up to 22 times a year.
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Sunday, April 25, 2010
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Goldman Sachs: Fraud and Profit ! The Devil is an Investment Banker !
Unbelievable. Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street titan under investigation for defrauding investors, has posted profits of more than $3.5 billion over the past three months.
fat cat
Tell the Senate to fight for taxpayers and consumers!
Watch our new video about our financial reform strategy as you sign the petition to tell your senators to rein in Wall Street's predatory and risky practices.
These "too-big-to-fail" monstrosities that caused the crisis remain out of control - and just a few bad bets away from another bailout.
Over the next week, heated debate on the Senate floor will focus on financial reform. We expect several attempts will be made to weaken consumer protections and create giant loopholes for the big banks.
Wall Street is lobbying harder than ever to fight reform. For the big banks, anything that stands in the way of their big bonuses, bailouts and casino capitalism is a threat.
Meanwhile, families across America trying to make an honest living continue to struggle.To learn more about Public Citizen's financial reform work,Vist/Click Here
Support reform! Take action to prevent a repeat of the crisis that plunged us into the Great Recession. Sign the petition for real financial reform.
Goldman Sachs and the rest on Wall Street are back to their old financial tricks and lobbying harder than ever to fight reform. For the big banks, anything that stands in the way of their big bonuses, bailouts and casino capitalism is a threat.
Keep up the fight. Take action for strong financial reform today!
Thank you for all you do.
Rick, Angela and Glenn
Your advocates at Public Citizen
action@citizen.org
donate
To learn more about Public Citizen's financial reform work,Vist/Click Here To get regular e-alerts about opportunities for activism and other ways to help with Public Citizen's work, sign up for the Public Citizen Action Network.
fat cat
Tell the Senate to fight for taxpayers and consumers!
Watch our new video about our financial reform strategy as you sign the petition to tell your senators to rein in Wall Street's predatory and risky practices.
These "too-big-to-fail" monstrosities that caused the crisis remain out of control - and just a few bad bets away from another bailout.
Over the next week, heated debate on the Senate floor will focus on financial reform. We expect several attempts will be made to weaken consumer protections and create giant loopholes for the big banks.
Wall Street is lobbying harder than ever to fight reform. For the big banks, anything that stands in the way of their big bonuses, bailouts and casino capitalism is a threat.
Meanwhile, families across America trying to make an honest living continue to struggle.To learn more about Public Citizen's financial reform work,Vist/Click Here
Support reform! Take action to prevent a repeat of the crisis that plunged us into the Great Recession. Sign the petition for real financial reform.
Goldman Sachs and the rest on Wall Street are back to their old financial tricks and lobbying harder than ever to fight reform. For the big banks, anything that stands in the way of their big bonuses, bailouts and casino capitalism is a threat.
Keep up the fight. Take action for strong financial reform today!
Thank you for all you do.
Rick, Angela and Glenn
Your advocates at Public Citizen
action@citizen.org
donate
To learn more about Public Citizen's financial reform work,Vist/Click Here To get regular e-alerts about opportunities for activism and other ways to help with Public Citizen's work, sign up for the Public Citizen Action Network.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
One of the World's Biggest Oil Producers Is Going Bust
By Matt Badiali, editor, S&A Resource Report
Saturday, April 10, 2010
"What this means is that we require, in one way or another, the collaboration of other companies on an international level precisely in order to recuperate our levels of production."
From time to time, my job as a resource stock analyst means I get to act as "BS interpreter."
This quote above, uttered by Mexican Energy Minister Georgina Kessel at an international conference a few weeks ago, is a mouthful of government gobbledygook. Here's what she's actually saying… and what it means for your resource portfolio…
Most Americans don't realize it, but Mexico is a major player in global oil production. According to the Energy Information Agency, it was the seventh largest oil-producing country in 2008. Mexico is the U.S.'s second-largest source of imported oil, behind Canada.
You read that correctly: We import more oil from Mexico than we do Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, or any other Middle Eastern country. You don't read about it much in the papers, but Mexico is a critical supplier to American drivers.
Now, Mexican oil officials like Georgina Kessel have a problem… one the entire world has: There are no easy barrels left.
You see, in the oil business, there are "easy barrels," like the kind discovered in Mexico, Texas, and Saudi Arabia decades ago. These easy barrels burst from the earth when you puncture a highly pressurized oil field with a drill pipe. These are the barrels you see in movies and cartoons.
There are also "hard barrels," like the kind locked inside oil sands. They require enormous amounts of digging and processing in order to become the "light, sweet" crude that we turn into gasoline.
Another example of a "hard barrel" is one located hundreds of miles out into (and miles under) the ocean. This requires hundreds of millions of dollars in ships, advanced drilling technology, and undersea pipelines.
The world has plenty of hard barrels in reserve. Brazilian oil major Petrobras has discovered several "supergiant" fields (greater than 1 billion barrels) off the coast of Brazil. Canada and Venezuela have extraordinary amounts of oil trapped in tar sands. The U.S. has over a trillion barrels locked in shale formations out West. And since 2004, 63 new fields have been discovered in the Gulf of Mexico – 16 of those in water at least a mile deep.
It takes billions of dollars in infrastructure spending to develop these difficult fields. Hardly the easy oil of Mexico's past.
Mexico's legendary Cantarell field – discovered in 1976 and named for the fisherman who found it – is the sixth largest oil field on Earth. And it was once the second largest producing field in the world, after the massive Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.
Cantarell was a once-in-a-lifetime discovery… so for years, Mexican officials could pretend they were oil experts. The field was so ridiculously productive, they could afford to nationalize the industry, steal the company blind, and pump the oil with abandon.
Production peaked in 2004 at 2.1 million barrels per day, which accounted for 64% of total oil production at Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex. But years and years of mistreating the golden goose has left its world-class oilfield in a sorry state of underproduction. Oil fields are like children… you have to take care of them and invest in their future.
The problem is that the government has done a terrible job of "upkeep."
Production at Cantarell plummeted 30% in 2008. It produced less than 780,000 barrels per day in 2009. And Pemex's total oil production fell 21% from 3.3 million barrels per day in 2004 to just 2.6 million barrels per day today.
Worse yet, thanks to decades of complacency, Pemex can't find more oil. In 2007, it managed to replace just 50% of its production. In 2008, it replaced just 70%. The new reserves it does find come from much smaller fields. The company is replacing million-barrel-per-day fields with 150,000-barrel-per-day fields.
Mexico – for years a major oil exporter – could become an oil importer within a decade. This is a disaster for the Mexican economy. Pemex employs over 100,000 people and supplies the Mexican government with around 40% of its revenue… and its oil revenue is wilting away.
Now that Cantarell isn't blasting out oil, industry insiders are seeing exactly how incompetent Pemex is. It's the General Motors of the oil world… If it weren't such an important exporter, it would be a joke.
What Mexico and Georgina Kessel are finally doing is admitting they need outside expertise in righting their ship. Take out the flowery government speak from Georgina's quote and you get:
"We are running out of oil. We underinvested in our infrastructure in favor of huge social programs. We've mismanaged our fields so badly that we need immediate help to find and pump more oil."
This is from a major player in the global oil export market.
For investors, this sort of comment is further reason to own oil and oil-service stocks for the long term. Major producers used to easy barrels – like Mexico, Venezuela, and Iran – are experiencing production declines… so much so that they will pull their exports from the market, sending prices higher. I wouldn't' be surprised to see oil over $200 a barrel in five years (especially if our spendthrift government keeps debasing the paper currency we use to price oil).
This will make "hard barrels" – like the kind in Canada's tar sands or deep offshore – much more valuable… But only the expensive and high-tech expertise that skilled oil-service companies provide can unlock that value.
Stay long oil… and stay long oil services.
Good investing,
Matt Badiali
Saturday, April 10, 2010
"What this means is that we require, in one way or another, the collaboration of other companies on an international level precisely in order to recuperate our levels of production."
From time to time, my job as a resource stock analyst means I get to act as "BS interpreter."
This quote above, uttered by Mexican Energy Minister Georgina Kessel at an international conference a few weeks ago, is a mouthful of government gobbledygook. Here's what she's actually saying… and what it means for your resource portfolio…
Most Americans don't realize it, but Mexico is a major player in global oil production. According to the Energy Information Agency, it was the seventh largest oil-producing country in 2008. Mexico is the U.S.'s second-largest source of imported oil, behind Canada.
You read that correctly: We import more oil from Mexico than we do Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, or any other Middle Eastern country. You don't read about it much in the papers, but Mexico is a critical supplier to American drivers.
Now, Mexican oil officials like Georgina Kessel have a problem… one the entire world has: There are no easy barrels left.
You see, in the oil business, there are "easy barrels," like the kind discovered in Mexico, Texas, and Saudi Arabia decades ago. These easy barrels burst from the earth when you puncture a highly pressurized oil field with a drill pipe. These are the barrels you see in movies and cartoons.
There are also "hard barrels," like the kind locked inside oil sands. They require enormous amounts of digging and processing in order to become the "light, sweet" crude that we turn into gasoline.
Another example of a "hard barrel" is one located hundreds of miles out into (and miles under) the ocean. This requires hundreds of millions of dollars in ships, advanced drilling technology, and undersea pipelines.
The world has plenty of hard barrels in reserve. Brazilian oil major Petrobras has discovered several "supergiant" fields (greater than 1 billion barrels) off the coast of Brazil. Canada and Venezuela have extraordinary amounts of oil trapped in tar sands. The U.S. has over a trillion barrels locked in shale formations out West. And since 2004, 63 new fields have been discovered in the Gulf of Mexico – 16 of those in water at least a mile deep.
It takes billions of dollars in infrastructure spending to develop these difficult fields. Hardly the easy oil of Mexico's past.
Mexico's legendary Cantarell field – discovered in 1976 and named for the fisherman who found it – is the sixth largest oil field on Earth. And it was once the second largest producing field in the world, after the massive Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.
Cantarell was a once-in-a-lifetime discovery… so for years, Mexican officials could pretend they were oil experts. The field was so ridiculously productive, they could afford to nationalize the industry, steal the company blind, and pump the oil with abandon.
Production peaked in 2004 at 2.1 million barrels per day, which accounted for 64% of total oil production at Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex. But years and years of mistreating the golden goose has left its world-class oilfield in a sorry state of underproduction. Oil fields are like children… you have to take care of them and invest in their future.
The problem is that the government has done a terrible job of "upkeep."
Production at Cantarell plummeted 30% in 2008. It produced less than 780,000 barrels per day in 2009. And Pemex's total oil production fell 21% from 3.3 million barrels per day in 2004 to just 2.6 million barrels per day today.
Worse yet, thanks to decades of complacency, Pemex can't find more oil. In 2007, it managed to replace just 50% of its production. In 2008, it replaced just 70%. The new reserves it does find come from much smaller fields. The company is replacing million-barrel-per-day fields with 150,000-barrel-per-day fields.
Mexico – for years a major oil exporter – could become an oil importer within a decade. This is a disaster for the Mexican economy. Pemex employs over 100,000 people and supplies the Mexican government with around 40% of its revenue… and its oil revenue is wilting away.
Now that Cantarell isn't blasting out oil, industry insiders are seeing exactly how incompetent Pemex is. It's the General Motors of the oil world… If it weren't such an important exporter, it would be a joke.
What Mexico and Georgina Kessel are finally doing is admitting they need outside expertise in righting their ship. Take out the flowery government speak from Georgina's quote and you get:
"We are running out of oil. We underinvested in our infrastructure in favor of huge social programs. We've mismanaged our fields so badly that we need immediate help to find and pump more oil."
This is from a major player in the global oil export market.
For investors, this sort of comment is further reason to own oil and oil-service stocks for the long term. Major producers used to easy barrels – like Mexico, Venezuela, and Iran – are experiencing production declines… so much so that they will pull their exports from the market, sending prices higher. I wouldn't' be surprised to see oil over $200 a barrel in five years (especially if our spendthrift government keeps debasing the paper currency we use to price oil).
This will make "hard barrels" – like the kind in Canada's tar sands or deep offshore – much more valuable… But only the expensive and high-tech expertise that skilled oil-service companies provide can unlock that value.
Stay long oil… and stay long oil services.
Good investing,
Matt Badiali
Friday, February 26, 2010
Liquid Nutrition and Super-AntiOxidant Formula Bring Vibrant Health
A powerful combination of nutrients to help you protect your health, increase your energy, and more. Includes one bottle of Advanced Liquid Nutrition and one bottle of Super Antioxidant Formula.
Our new berry flavored formula now has Acai Berry Extract, Grape Seed Extract, Omegas 3 & 6, and Calcium! It's also Gluten free.
Veriuni Advanced Liquid Nutrition is a one-of-a-kind, all-natural liquid supplement designed to promote robust health. Our exclusive formula packs 13 vitamins, 9 herbs, 18 amino acids, and a variety of nutrients, minerals, and plant extracts for total body wellness in every delicious, mixed-berry-flavored, 1-ounce dose.
Why take a liquid nutrition? One word--ABSORPTION!!! The nutrients in Veriuni's Advanced Liquid Nutrition are up to 98% absorbable. Compare that to the less effective 5-10% absorption rate for capsules or hard-to-swallow compressed "horse pills" with unfavorable vitamin aftertastes. Advanced Liquid Nutrition's unique dietary supplement contains nearly every daily nutrient required for vigorous health in a 1-ounce dose.
Liquid Nutrition and Super-Anti-Oxidant Formula
You can't get this formula anywhere else online or in stores! Try Veriuni Advanced Liquid Nutrition today and start noticing an improved sense of well-being and increased energy today!
Directions: For use as a dietary supplement, take 2 tablespoons daily. Shake well before each use. Keep out of reach of children.
Caution: Women who are pregnant or nursing should consult their health care provider before using this product.
REFRIGERATE AFTER OPENING
INGREDIENTS/LABEL INFORMATION:
ADVANCED LIQUID NUTRITION
mixed-berry-flavored vitamin & mineral supplement
32 FL. OZ. (946 ml) • Dietary Supplement
Supplement Facts:
Serving Size: 2 tablespoons (approximately 30 ml, 16 calories)
Servings Per Container: approximately 32
Ingredients -- Amount per serving / % Daily Value*
Potassium (Citrate) -- 70 mg / 2%
Vitamin A (Palmitate) -- 5,000 IU / 100%
Vitamin C (Ascorbic Acid) -- 60 mg / 100%
Calcium (Citrate) -- 250 mg / 25%
Vitamin D3 (Cholecalciferol) -- 400 IU / 100%
Vitamin E (dl-alpha Tocopherol Acetate) -- 30 IU / 100%
Vitamin B1 (Thiamin HCI) -- 1.5 mg / 100%
Vitamin B2 (Riboflavin) -- 1.7 mg / 100%
Vitamin B3 (as Niacinamide) -- 20 mg / 100%
Vitamin B6 (as Pyridoxine HCl) -- 2 mg / 100%
Folic Acid -- 400 mcg / 100%
Vitamin B12 (as Cyanocobalamin) -- 6 mcg / 100%
Biotin -- 300 mcg / 100%
Vitamin B5 (Calcium Pantothenate) -- 10 mg / 100%
Zinc (Gluconate) -- 5 mg / 33%
Inositol -- 50 mg / †
Acai Extract -- 100 mg / †
Aloe Vera 200:1 -- 1mg / †
Total Carbohydrate (Sugars) -- 4 g / 1%
Amino Acid Complex -- 10 mg / †
(Lysine, Alanine, Arginine, Aspartic Acid, Cystine, Glutamic Acid, Glycine, Histidine, Isoleucine, Leucine, Methionine, Phenylalanine, Proline, Serine, Threonine, Taurine, Tyrosine, Valine) Herbal Complex -- 10 mg / †
(Green Tea Extract, Ginkgo Biloba Leaf, Red Raspberry Extract, Pau d’ Arco Extract, Grape Skin Extract, White Willow Bark Extract, Cat’s Claw Extract, Bilberry Extract, Hawthorne Berry Extract)
Bioflavanoids (Quercitin, Rutin) -- 5 mg / †
CoQ10 -- 3 mg / †
Grape Seed Extract -- 5 mg / †
Essential Fatty Acids (Lecithin, Flaxseed Oil) -- 245 mg / †
*Percent Daily Values are based on a 2,000 calorie diet
†Daily Value not established
Other Ingredients: Purified Water, Vegetable Glycerin, Fructose, Natural Flavors, Vegetable Gum, Citric Acid, Potassium Benzoate and Potassium Sorbate (as preservatives), Citrus Pectin, Bromelain, Royal Jelly.
Liquid Nutrition and Super-Anti-Oxidant Formula
Statements have not been evaluated by the FDA. This product is a dietary supplement and is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent disease.
About Super Antioxidant Formula: Boosts your energy levels and healthy lifestyle. Contains all 10 antioxidants recommended by the government. Aids your body in removing cancerous free radicals from itself. Provides protection for collagen and connective tissues. Speeds wound healing and protects against pollutants and toxins. Helps prevent cataract formation and protects against neuroligical disorders. Ingredients: Beta Carotene, Vitamin E, Vitamin C, Citrus Bioflavonoids, Superoxide Dismutase, Co Q-10, Copper Sulfate, Zinc Sulfate, Manganese Sulfate, Selenium. Get more details about this product here.
Liquid Nutrition and Super-Anti-Oxidant Formula
Our new berry flavored formula now has Acai Berry Extract, Grape Seed Extract, Omegas 3 & 6, and Calcium! It's also Gluten free.
Veriuni Advanced Liquid Nutrition is a one-of-a-kind, all-natural liquid supplement designed to promote robust health. Our exclusive formula packs 13 vitamins, 9 herbs, 18 amino acids, and a variety of nutrients, minerals, and plant extracts for total body wellness in every delicious, mixed-berry-flavored, 1-ounce dose.
Why take a liquid nutrition? One word--ABSORPTION!!! The nutrients in Veriuni's Advanced Liquid Nutrition are up to 98% absorbable. Compare that to the less effective 5-10% absorption rate for capsules or hard-to-swallow compressed "horse pills" with unfavorable vitamin aftertastes. Advanced Liquid Nutrition's unique dietary supplement contains nearly every daily nutrient required for vigorous health in a 1-ounce dose.
Liquid Nutrition and Super-Anti-Oxidant Formula
You can't get this formula anywhere else online or in stores! Try Veriuni Advanced Liquid Nutrition today and start noticing an improved sense of well-being and increased energy today!
Directions: For use as a dietary supplement, take 2 tablespoons daily. Shake well before each use. Keep out of reach of children.
Caution: Women who are pregnant or nursing should consult their health care provider before using this product.
REFRIGERATE AFTER OPENING
INGREDIENTS/LABEL INFORMATION:
ADVANCED LIQUID NUTRITION
mixed-berry-flavored vitamin & mineral supplement
32 FL. OZ. (946 ml) • Dietary Supplement
Supplement Facts:
Serving Size: 2 tablespoons (approximately 30 ml, 16 calories)
Servings Per Container: approximately 32
Ingredients -- Amount per serving / % Daily Value*
Potassium (Citrate) -- 70 mg / 2%
Vitamin A (Palmitate) -- 5,000 IU / 100%
Vitamin C (Ascorbic Acid) -- 60 mg / 100%
Calcium (Citrate) -- 250 mg / 25%
Vitamin D3 (Cholecalciferol) -- 400 IU / 100%
Vitamin E (dl-alpha Tocopherol Acetate) -- 30 IU / 100%
Vitamin B1 (Thiamin HCI) -- 1.5 mg / 100%
Vitamin B2 (Riboflavin) -- 1.7 mg / 100%
Vitamin B3 (as Niacinamide) -- 20 mg / 100%
Vitamin B6 (as Pyridoxine HCl) -- 2 mg / 100%
Folic Acid -- 400 mcg / 100%
Vitamin B12 (as Cyanocobalamin) -- 6 mcg / 100%
Biotin -- 300 mcg / 100%
Vitamin B5 (Calcium Pantothenate) -- 10 mg / 100%
Zinc (Gluconate) -- 5 mg / 33%
Inositol -- 50 mg / †
Acai Extract -- 100 mg / †
Aloe Vera 200:1 -- 1mg / †
Total Carbohydrate (Sugars) -- 4 g / 1%
Amino Acid Complex -- 10 mg / †
(Lysine, Alanine, Arginine, Aspartic Acid, Cystine, Glutamic Acid, Glycine, Histidine, Isoleucine, Leucine, Methionine, Phenylalanine, Proline, Serine, Threonine, Taurine, Tyrosine, Valine) Herbal Complex -- 10 mg / †
(Green Tea Extract, Ginkgo Biloba Leaf, Red Raspberry Extract, Pau d’ Arco Extract, Grape Skin Extract, White Willow Bark Extract, Cat’s Claw Extract, Bilberry Extract, Hawthorne Berry Extract)
Bioflavanoids (Quercitin, Rutin) -- 5 mg / †
CoQ10 -- 3 mg / †
Grape Seed Extract -- 5 mg / †
Essential Fatty Acids (Lecithin, Flaxseed Oil) -- 245 mg / †
*Percent Daily Values are based on a 2,000 calorie diet
†Daily Value not established
Other Ingredients: Purified Water, Vegetable Glycerin, Fructose, Natural Flavors, Vegetable Gum, Citric Acid, Potassium Benzoate and Potassium Sorbate (as preservatives), Citrus Pectin, Bromelain, Royal Jelly.
Liquid Nutrition and Super-Anti-Oxidant Formula
Statements have not been evaluated by the FDA. This product is a dietary supplement and is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent disease.
About Super Antioxidant Formula: Boosts your energy levels and healthy lifestyle. Contains all 10 antioxidants recommended by the government. Aids your body in removing cancerous free radicals from itself. Provides protection for collagen and connective tissues. Speeds wound healing and protects against pollutants and toxins. Helps prevent cataract formation and protects against neuroligical disorders. Ingredients: Beta Carotene, Vitamin E, Vitamin C, Citrus Bioflavonoids, Superoxide Dismutase, Co Q-10, Copper Sulfate, Zinc Sulfate, Manganese Sulfate, Selenium. Get more details about this product here.
Liquid Nutrition and Super-Anti-Oxidant Formula
Friday, February 19, 2010
Latest Report Shows the Jobless Recovery Still Endures
Latest Report Shows the Jobless Recovery Still Endures
By Jon D. Markman, Contributing Writer, Money MorningStocks have staged surprise rebounds after seemingly poor payroll reports half a dozen times in the past year. But the one time that there was better-than-expected job news, on Dec. 5, the market tanked. Go figure – it’s a great example of how upside down the logic is on Wall Street. To help us interpret the jobs report of last week, I turned to my favorite independent labor analysts, Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood. Here’s their view of the latest numbers, which they considered the most positive in months – despite the many problems highlighted by the latest jobs report.
Let’s analyze some of the highlights – and lowlights – of the most recent report: The headline job loss of 20,000 jobs was driven by losses of 75,000 in construction, mostly in non-residential, with large losses in specialty trades (those who finish buildings). Heavy and civil construction both were flat, which makes you wonder where the StimPak [stimulus package] is going. Manufacturing added 11,000, its first positive month in three years, led by motor vehicles. Retail added 42,000, with no single sector hogging the gains. Transportation and finance had modest losses. Healthcare added just 15,000 jobs, slightly below the sector’s average over the last year, and private education lost jobs. Temp firms were real standouts, adding 52,000 workers, continuing their strength. Temp agency Kelly Services Inc. (Nasdaq: KELYA) hit a new 52-week high last week, reflecting the strength of temp employment in the jobless recovery. In fact, temp employment is on the verge of going positive year-over-year, which would be the first time that’s happened since early 2007. Let’s hope this is a harbinger of broader payroll gains, and not just a new regime of throwaway jobs. The federal government added 33,000 workers – 9,000 of them for the U.S. Census - with the total partly offsetting losses of 41,000 at the state and local level. Given the fiscal situation at the sub-federal level, we can probably expect more of the same.
Diffusion indexes (positives less negatives) posted nice across-the-board gains, with the one-month measure at its highest level since March 2008. The 12-month index is still a laggard, but it’s at its highest level in eight months. These suggest some firming in the labor market’s internals. Average hourly earnings for production workers rose 0.3%, while the measure rose and 0.2% for all workers. The yearly changes are 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively. Wage pressures are nonexistent, which is great to hear if you’re worried about inflation, but isn’t so great if you’re a worker hoping for a nice raise. The average workweek rose 0.1 hours for both production workers and for all workers. This is the longest workweek in the production-worker series in a year. Aggregate hours rose nicely for both sets of workers in the major sectors, and the yearly decline in aggregate hours for production workers is its smallest since October 2008. The rise in the workweek, which is starting to look like a trend, portends well for future hiring. Employment losses since December 2007, when the recession began, are now pegged at 8.4 million, or 6.1% of total employment. That’s the worst since the post-war demobilization recession of 1945, and nearly three times the average job loss in post-1950 recessions. The labor participation rate was up 0.1 point and the employment/population ratio rose a nice 0.2 percentage points, its first increase since last April. While it’s too early to say whether this strength in the household survey is a harbinger of an upturn that will soon show up in payrolls, it’s something to be filed under "tentatively encouraging." The unemployment rate declined a sharp 0.3 percentage points to 9.7% — all of it clean, meaning there wasn’t any rounding funniness, or pop-control distortions. "Hidden" unemployment declined even more markedly, with the broad U-6 rate falling a sharp 0.8 points to 16.5%. The job-finding rate (the probability of a person unemployed in December finding a job in January) rose by three points to 24.5%, its highest level in six months. It looks like we’re seeing more concentration in the very-long-term unemployed, defined as those who were jobless for 27 weeks or more. All in all, Dunne and Henwood conclude, this was a pretty good report by the standards of the last couple of years. In more normal times, this report wouldn’t be any cause for cheer, they observe. But it does support hopes that the labor market is turning. The problem, however, is this: During a normal expansion of a healthy economy, monthly payrolls typically rise as much as 150,000 a month. But during the early stages of a recovery, gains are expected to exceed 250,000 per month. In contrast, at best the economy shed 25,000 last month in what is supposed to be a recovery. And it might be worse. TrimTabs Investment Research, an economic-research firm based in the San Francisco Bay Area, reports that its data, based on records of real-time tax receipts, shows that job losses last month actually totaled 104,000. TrimTabs Chief Executive Charles Biederman says he believes the public is being lulled into a false sense of improvement by incorrect federal jobs reporting.”By the time everyone wakes up to the fact that the economy is not recovering, the damage will already have been done," he says. Since payrolls are still shrinking – even though the economy is supposedly improving – something is really wrong. At minimum, the recovery in employment is going to take a lot longer than the recovery in the economy, and every month that goes by there’s even more ground to make up.Editor’s Note: As the story above demonstrates, Money Morning Contributing Writer Jon Markman has a unique view on the markets. With uncertainty the watchword and volatility the norm in today’s markets, profitable investments are harder than ever to find. It takes a seasoned guide to find those opportunities. Markman is that guide. In the face of what’s been the toughest market for investors since the Great Depression, it’s time to sweep away uncertainty and eradicate worry. Subscribe to Strategic Advantage.
Hire Markman to be your guide..
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Five tips to avoid Haiti relief scams
Five tips to avoid Haiti relief scams
The aftermath of natural disasters often bring out the
scammers and con artists. Here are five tips to avoid Haiti
relief scams and make sure your donations make a difference.
Within 24 hours of the Haitian earthquake, scammers were at
work trying to profit from the disaster. The scams ranged
from e-mails asking donors for help to phone calls soliciting
funds to phony relief websites harvesting credit card numbers.
Whenever there is a natural disaster, there are two things
you can count on, says Art Taylor, president of the Better
Business Bureau's (BBB) Wise Giving Alliance, a nonprofit
consumer group. "The first is the generosity of Americans
to donate time and money to help victims, and the second is
the appearance of poorly run, and in some cases fraudulent,
charities," he says in a statement on the group's Website.
More than 400 Internet addresses related to Haiti have
been registered since Monday's devastating quake, Internet
security expert Joel Esler told ABC News. Some of those
websites may be legitimate, but many others are fraudulent.
"Not only do Americans need to be concerned about avoiding
fraud, they also need to make sure their money goes to
competent relief organizations that are equipped and
experienced to handle the unique challenges of providing
assistance," Taylor says.
Here are five tips, culled from information from the
Federal Bureau of Investigations and the Better Business
Bureau, to ensure your donation reaches its destination:
* Stick to well-known, reputable charities. The American
Institute of Philanthropy recently published their list
of top Haiti relief organizations, and Charity Navigator
evaluates charities with a four-star rating system. The
BBB also accredits charities based on fund-raising
practices and how the charities spend the funds.
* Be cautious when donating online. Scammers can put up
a website and open a PayPal account overnight, so be wary
of donating on sites you don't recognize. Also remember
that most nonprofit groups' Websites end in .org rather
than .com. Don't respond to unsolicited e-mails, and
don't click links or open attachments from people you
don't know since they may contain
computer viruses.
* Donate to organizations, not individuals. Be skeptical
of individuals who approach you - in person, on phone,
or via e-mail - asking for money. Some may pose as an
official or represent a charity.
* Check the charity out. Find out if it has on-the-ground
presence in Haiti, and ask how your funds will be used.
If a charity doesn't already have staff in Haiti, it may
find it difficult or take a long time to
provide immediate assistance.
* Give money, not food, clothing, or equipment. Although
well intentioned,donations of food and clothing are
inefficient ways to help victims quickly, when transportation
and distribution are taken into account. Give money and
let the experts determine how best to use it.
Finally, if you think you've been scammed, you can file
a complaint with the Internet Crime Complaint Center
(if the scam was online) or with the National Fraud
Information Center if the scam was over the phone or online.
Find all the URL,web addresses and more information on Scam Reports and Performance Reviews
The aftermath of natural disasters often bring out the
scammers and con artists. Here are five tips to avoid Haiti
relief scams and make sure your donations make a difference.
Within 24 hours of the Haitian earthquake, scammers were at
work trying to profit from the disaster. The scams ranged
from e-mails asking donors for help to phone calls soliciting
funds to phony relief websites harvesting credit card numbers.
Whenever there is a natural disaster, there are two things
you can count on, says Art Taylor, president of the Better
Business Bureau's (BBB) Wise Giving Alliance, a nonprofit
consumer group. "The first is the generosity of Americans
to donate time and money to help victims, and the second is
the appearance of poorly run, and in some cases fraudulent,
charities," he says in a statement on the group's Website.
More than 400 Internet addresses related to Haiti have
been registered since Monday's devastating quake, Internet
security expert Joel Esler told ABC News. Some of those
websites may be legitimate, but many others are fraudulent.
"Not only do Americans need to be concerned about avoiding
fraud, they also need to make sure their money goes to
competent relief organizations that are equipped and
experienced to handle the unique challenges of providing
assistance," Taylor says.
Here are five tips, culled from information from the
Federal Bureau of Investigations and the Better Business
Bureau, to ensure your donation reaches its destination:
* Stick to well-known, reputable charities. The American
Institute of Philanthropy recently published their list
of top Haiti relief organizations, and Charity Navigator
evaluates charities with a four-star rating system. The
BBB also accredits charities based on fund-raising
practices and how the charities spend the funds.
* Be cautious when donating online. Scammers can put up
a website and open a PayPal account overnight, so be wary
of donating on sites you don't recognize. Also remember
that most nonprofit groups' Websites end in .org rather
than .com. Don't respond to unsolicited e-mails, and
don't click links or open attachments from people you
don't know since they may contain
computer viruses.
* Donate to organizations, not individuals. Be skeptical
of individuals who approach you - in person, on phone,
or via e-mail - asking for money. Some may pose as an
official or represent a charity.
* Check the charity out. Find out if it has on-the-ground
presence in Haiti, and ask how your funds will be used.
If a charity doesn't already have staff in Haiti, it may
find it difficult or take a long time to
provide immediate assistance.
* Give money, not food, clothing, or equipment. Although
well intentioned,donations of food and clothing are
inefficient ways to help victims quickly, when transportation
and distribution are taken into account. Give money and
let the experts determine how best to use it.
Finally, if you think you've been scammed, you can file
a complaint with the Internet Crime Complaint Center
(if the scam was online) or with the National Fraud
Information Center if the scam was over the phone or online.
Find all the URL,web addresses and more information on Scam Reports and Performance Reviews
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